***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.3 6.5 7.2 67.1 49.3 36.0 3.5 6.6 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 2.1 4.7 6.1 66.0 49.0 35.5 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 3.2 8.3 8.2 75.3 53.8 38.8 3.3 7.1 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.2 14.0 10.8 93.8 61.1 44.5 6.3 10.5 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.8 12.4 10.4 86.8 57.8 42.4 5.8 10.0 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.8 9.1 10.4 92.1 58.8 47.1 4.1 7.1 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 1.8 3.6 5.4 59.9 45.7 33.4 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 11.1 18.8 11.4 88.0 57.4 44.5 11.8 16.5 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.2 9.2 10.7 81.7 55.2 41.1 4.1 7.7 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 6.0 12.6 11.6 85.1 56.0 43.0 6.3 10.7 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 4.0 10.0 10.5 90.7 59.1 44.3 4.1 7.5 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 6.0 12.7 10.2 89.4 58.5 45.1 6.2 10.2 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.4 9.4 9.8 81.5 54.4 43.9 4.4 8.1 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.7 10.6 11.5 81.4 55.2 41.7 4.7 9.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.8 12.8 11.9 111.1 68.0 48.3 3.5 7.0 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.9 9.2 9.9 88.5 58.0 44.3 4.1 7.3 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 1.8 3.8 5.4 60.8 46.6 33.9 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.6 11.1 12.1 82.4 54.3 42.2 5.6 9.8 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 2.9 6.6 6.9 70.9 51.6 37.6 3.2 6.3 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.6 10.6 13.7 77.6 52.2 41.7 5.8 9.9 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.8 8.4 9.2 76.1 53.5 39.2 3.9 7.5 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 2.8 5.7 6.4 68.0 50.6 37.2 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.2 7.1 8.3 76.9 54.3 39.9 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.5 10.0 11.0 82.3 55.5 41.7 4.5 8.4 13.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.4 7.2 8.4 68.6 49.4 36.9 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.2 8.2 9.9 88.3 58.5 45.4 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.6 5.1 7.2 63.6 46.8 35.1 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.1 12.9 11.3 105.3 65.2 47.5 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 10.4 17.9 12.5 79.8 52.9 41.8 10.8 16.8 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.6 5.6 6.5 67.4 50.0 36.0 2.9 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------