***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.6 8.5 12.3 111.7 67.0 51.4 2.8 5.2 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.1 6.5 10.4 108.9 66.3 50.9 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.2 11.0 12.2 110.9 66.7 52.1 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.2 11.3 15.3 123.7 71.0 59.0 4.2 6.7 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 7.4 10.2 14.0 113.3 67.5 58.0 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.1 10.9 14.0 114.5 67.3 57.3 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.9 7.6 10.4 110.3 67.0 52.2 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.5 18.0 15.7 117.9 68.6 58.1 6.8 11.2 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 6.5 8.7 14.5 112.0 66.8 57.0 3.1 5.4 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 7.4 9.9 15.9 115.1 67.6 57.8 3.3 6.0 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 7.0 9.8 13.8 114.9 67.9 58.5 3.1 5.7 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 8.0 11.3 13.9 116.4 68.3 58.6 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.8 12.4 13.9 110.4 66.0 57.3 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 8.9 11.2 15.4 108.5 65.6 53.6 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.6 13.5 17.0 144.8 76.4 58.8 2.3 5.0 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 7.3 9.7 13.3 110.8 66.5 57.7 3.2 5.9 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.9 7.4 9.8 106.9 65.7 52.9 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 7.4 10.5 16.8 114.2 67.1 56.7 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.1 6.4 11.0 109.2 66.3 50.8 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.2 14.8 20.2 116.1 67.7 55.8 4.9 8.8 14.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 7.0 9.1 13.0 108.4 65.5 54.1 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.9 6.9 10.4 105.3 65.0 51.4 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.2 6.4 12.1 109.4 66.2 51.5 2.2 4.0 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 9.6 12.4 14.8 110.4 66.1 54.7 4.6 7.9 12.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 7.3 9.7 14.0 111.2 66.7 54.1 3.0 5.7 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.1 10.7 13.8 116.0 68.3 57.0 3.5 6.3 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.2 7.9 12.9 110.3 66.4 52.0 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.8 12.4 15.3 128.9 72.2 59.2 2.6 5.5 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 14.6 19.3 17.8 114.5 67.1 56.3 6.6 11.8 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.6 7.4 11.0 108.8 66.4 50.3 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------