***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 27.4 32.0 46.6 111.5 65.0 57.8 15.5 23.3 32.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 26.2 29.9 40.1 110.6 64.4 57.4 15.1 22.4 30.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 38.6 44.9 46.7 112.6 65.6 58.0 22.7 33.0 45.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 54.6 52.6 56.5 116.5 67.8 61.8 28.9 39.1 50.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 44.6 50.5 53.7 111.5 65.0 59.4 30.0 40.1 51.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 45.1 42.4 53.6 112.8 65.7 61.1 24.6 33.1 42.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 24.8 28.8 39.0 110.0 64.1 57.4 15.5 22.1 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 77.5 77.8 62.7 119.9 70.1 64.9 50.0 61.6 74.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 35.9 40.3 53.4 110.5 64.4 58.3 24.3 32.3 41.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 45.1 52.0 60.0 115.3 67.5 61.8 31.5 40.8 50.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 47.4 46.4 54.7 116.3 67.9 62.8 25.6 34.6 45.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 51.4 50.0 56.3 119.4 69.6 64.6 25.2 35.1 46.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 44.0 49.3 56.1 110.7 64.5 60.6 29.6 39.4 50.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 46.8 53.2 60.7 113.7 66.5 58.6 33.8 43.0 53.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 52.2 54.1 57.6 129.9 73.3 66.0 18.0 29.9 44.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 43.3 41.2 53.9 113.1 65.9 61.3 23.5 31.9 41.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 27.7 31.0 37.8 108.3 63.1 57.0 16.9 24.2 32.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 42.0 49.3 63.9 115.5 67.8 61.6 28.0 37.4 48.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.8 34.3 42.4 112.3 65.4 57.9 17.6 25.4 34.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 54.3 56.4 81.9 119.9 70.3 64.9 30.3 40.7 52.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 38.3 41.5 49.7 108.4 63.0 56.3 24.0 33.1 43.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.0 32.2 41.3 111.5 65.0 58.2 16.5 24.0 32.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 28.3 33.3 47.0 114.5 66.7 58.6 17.5 24.7 32.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 46.1 52.0 56.9 113.5 66.3 59.1 33.4 42.1 51.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 39.3 43.6 52.9 108.2 62.8 56.6 23.2 33.9 46.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 44.2 42.0 56.2 115.4 67.1 63.0 21.7 30.7 41.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 32.8 37.5 49.0 110.1 64.0 57.2 19.9 28.5 39.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 50.4 48.1 55.4 122.2 70.3 64.1 19.1 30.0 43.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 67.9 79.1 69.9 117.5 69.1 63.1 49.8 62.4 76.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 27.1 31.9 41.9 111.9 65.2 58.1 15.9 23.4 32.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------