***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 9999.0 -4.3 -5.5 -3.5 18.0 24.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 -4.7 -4.7 -4.8 -2.4 27.7 32.4 -4.1 -2.1 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 -2.6 -3.7 -5.8 -3.6 16.9 23.4 -1.6 0.2 1.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 -8.4 -10.0 -8.2 -4.1 13.4 20.4 -7.1 -5.2 -3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 -5.4 -7.1 -8.0 -4.2 13.2 20.1 -4.2 -2.4 -0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 -6.2 -6.6 -8.5 -2.8 21.0 27.9 -5.2 -3.4 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 -4.4 -4.5 -4.6 -2.3 29.2 33.4 -4.0 -2.1 -0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 -9.5 -10.1 -8.2 -3.5 18.8 25.3 -8.7 -7.4 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 -4.6 -6.2 -7.6 -4.4 12.3 19.1 -3.3 -1.6 0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 -4.4 -5.4 -8.0 -3.7 17.1 23.5 -3.4 -1.8 -0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 -5.3 -6.8 -8.0 -4.0 13.9 20.7 -4.1 -2.2 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 -6.1 -7.3 -7.8 -3.9 15.0 22.1 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 -6.0 -7.0 -8.0 -3.6 16.6 23.8 -4.7 -2.8 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 -3.5 -4.1 -6.5 -3.1 21.1 26.8 -2.8 -1.2 0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 -5.3 -7.4 -8.3 -4.4 11.3 19.1 -4.1 -2.1 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 -4.5 -5.7 -8.1 -3.9 14.9 21.8 -3.4 -1.6 0.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 -4.2 -4.1 -4.6 -2.1 31.3 35.2 -3.9 -2.2 -0.6 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 -6.3 -6.7 -8.0 -3.1 22.0 27.7 -5.5 -3.9 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 -4.9 -5.2 -5.0 -2.7 25.3 30.5 -4.2 -2.2 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 -10.2 -9.8 -8.6 -2.3 29.2 34.0 -9.3 -7.1 -5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 -5.0 -6.6 -6.8 -4.4 12.5 19.5 -3.6 -1.7 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 -4.6 -4.6 -4.6 -2.3 30.0 34.4 -4.2 -2.4 -0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 -4.7 -5.4 -5.4 -3.0 22.1 27.9 -4.1 -2.3 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 -4.7 -5.5 -7.0 -3.6 17.9 24.1 -3.7 -2.1 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 -4.8 -6.1 -7.4 -3.9 14.9 21.6 -3.7 -1.9 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 -5.1 -5.7 -7.3 -3.3 18.0 25.5 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 -5.2 -6.2 -6.2 -3.4 18.8 24.8 -3.9 -1.6 0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 -6.1 -7.9 -8.1 -4.2 12.8 19.9 -4.9 -3.0 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 -6.3 -6.2 -8.1 -2.6 26.5 31.6 -5.6 -4.0 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 -4.6 -4.8 -4.9 -2.7 24.8 30.0 -3.7 -1.7 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------