***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 9999.0 -5.6 -5.3 -3.4 6.9 13.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 -5.1 -5.9 -4.7 -2.5 15.3 22.7 -4.1 -2.7 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 -2.7 -4.9 -6.0 -3.9 4.8 10.5 -1.5 -0.3 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -9.1 -12.6 -8.9 -4.9 1.6 4.4 -7.4 -6.1 -4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 -5.4 -8.7 -8.8 -5.1 1.0 3.6 -4.0 -2.9 -1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 97 3 0 100 -5.9 -8.1 -9.7 -4.0 2.9 6.4 -4.7 -3.7 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 -4.7 -5.3 -4.5 -2.3 17.5 24.6 -3.8 -2.4 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 97 3 0 100 -10.8 -13.3 -9.2 -4.3 2.9 6.9 -9.5 -8.3 -7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 -4.5 -8.0 -8.4 -5.2 1.0 3.8 -3.1 -2.0 -0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 97 3 0 100 -4.4 -6.6 -9.0 -4.6 2.6 6.2 -3.2 -2.2 -1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 -4.9 -8.2 -9.0 -5.1 1.0 3.6 -3.6 -2.5 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 98 2 0 100 -5.8 -8.7 -8.9 -4.9 1.2 4.4 -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 -5.4 -8.5 -9.1 -4.7 1.4 4.4 -4.0 -2.9 -1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 94 6 0 100 -3.9 -5.7 -7.1 -3.8 5.0 10.3 -2.7 -1.6 -0.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 99 1 0 100 -4.6 -7.8 -8.9 -5.3 1.2 4.2 -3.3 -2.2 -1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 99 1 0 100 -4.1 -7.1 -9.3 -5.1 1.0 3.5 -2.8 -1.8 -0.9 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 -4.9 -5.3 -4.6 -2.3 18.6 25.3 -3.9 -2.6 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 92 8 0 100 -6.4 -8.0 -9.1 -3.9 5.5 9.9 -5.3 -4.3 -3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 -5.0 -6.1 -4.9 -2.7 12.8 20.3 -3.9 -2.6 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 -9.9 -11.1 -9.6 -2.9 10.2 15.8 -8.8 -7.6 -6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 -4.8 -8.0 -7.3 -4.9 1.4 5.0 -3.4 -2.2 -1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 -5.1 -5.6 -4.5 -2.4 17.4 24.4 -4.1 -2.8 -1.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 -4.8 -6.1 -5.3 -3.0 9.3 16.8 -3.8 -2.7 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 96 4 0 100 -4.7 -7.0 -7.9 -4.3 2.9 7.1 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 95 5 0 100 -4.9 -7.1 -7.4 -4.1 3.7 8.6 -3.6 -2.5 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 -4.9 -7.2 -8.4 -4.2 2.2 6.3 -3.7 -2.7 -1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 -5.0 -6.7 -5.9 -3.3 8.1 14.5 -3.7 -2.3 -1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 -5.9 -8.9 -9.0 -5.2 1.3 3.7 -4.6 -3.5 -2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 90 10 0 100 -7.3 -8.6 -9.2 -3.4 7.8 13.0 -6.1 -4.9 -3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 -4.7 -5.7 -4.8 -2.7 13.0 20.4 -3.6 -2.2 -0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------