***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 9999.0 1.1 2.1 -3.6 7.9 13.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 2.7 1.5 2.5 -3.0 13.5 19.9 4.0 5.7 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 3.3 1.1 2.0 -3.9 7.3 13.0 4.9 6.6 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 -3.1 -6.2 -1.3 -5.2 3.1 6.8 -1.3 0.1 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 3.1 0.1 -0.3 -4.8 3.6 7.6 4.9 6.5 8.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 99 1 0 100 2.6 0.0 -1.5 -4.4 3.3 6.7 4.3 5.7 7.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 2.1 1.0 2.5 -2.8 14.0 20.4 3.5 5.3 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 -4.0 -6.2 -0.7 -4.3 3.9 7.8 -2.7 -1.6 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 94 6 0 100 3.6 0.9 0.7 -4.6 4.4 8.9 5.4 7.0 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 95 5 0 100 3.6 1.0 -0.1 -4.4 4.1 8.3 5.3 6.8 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 3.6 0.6 -0.1 -4.7 3.6 7.6 5.3 6.8 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 95 5 0 100 3.5 0.8 -0.2 -4.5 3.6 7.3 5.1 6.5 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 3.7 1.1 -0.4 -4.3 3.9 7.4 5.3 6.7 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 90 10 0 100 3.8 1.6 1.4 -3.9 7.3 12.6 5.5 7.2 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 96 4 0 100 2.4 -0.8 -1.0 -5.1 3.4 7.6 4.3 5.9 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 3.9 1.0 -0.5 -4.7 3.5 7.1 5.6 7.1 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 2.7 1.8 2.5 -2.7 16.5 22.8 3.7 5.3 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 95 5 0 100 3.1 0.6 -0.4 -4.2 4.4 8.6 4.7 6.2 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 2.5 1.0 2.5 -3.2 12.2 18.5 4.0 5.8 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 97 3 0 100 -0.2 -2.3 -2.0 -3.7 4.7 8.6 1.4 2.7 3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 91 9 0 100 3.5 0.8 1.3 -4.4 5.0 9.9 5.2 6.7 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 3.0 1.9 2.6 -2.8 15.8 22.1 4.2 6.0 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 84 16 0 100 2.8 1.1 2.4 -3.5 10.1 16.2 4.4 6.2 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 93 7 0 100 3.8 1.5 1.0 -4.2 5.4 10.3 5.5 7.1 8.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 2.6 0.2 0.3 -4.0 5.9 11.0 4.1 5.7 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 3.6 1.2 -0.4 -4.0 3.8 7.3 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 3.0 1.0 1.5 -3.4 8.4 14.2 4.5 6.1 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 98 2 0 100 2.8 -0.9 -1.1 -5.4 2.9 6.6 4.9 6.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 95 5 0 100 -0.1 -2.4 -1.0 -3.9 4.8 9.1 1.5 2.9 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 82 18 0 100 2.4 1.0 2.4 -3.2 11.6 17.9 3.9 5.6 7.2 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------