***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 9999.0 -3.4 -4.3 -7.8 3.0 4.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 0.0 -1.7 -2.7 -6.1 9.1 11.0 2.5 4.5 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 0.8 -3.6 -4.8 -8.7 2.7 4.2 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -4.9 -12.3 -10.4 -12.0 0.3 0.9 -2.6 -0.7 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 0.8 -5.4 -8.4 -11.0 0.7 1.5 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 0.2 -6.2 -9.1 -10.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 99 1 0 100 -0.6 -2.1 -2.3 -5.6 10.0 11.8 2.0 4.1 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 -5.5 -10.1 -7.9 -9.7 1.5 2.9 -3.3 -1.6 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 1.3 -4.7 -7.0 -10.4 1.0 2.0 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 1.5 -3.5 -7.6 -10.0 1.4 2.8 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 1.2 -4.6 -8.1 -10.8 0.9 1.9 3.6 5.5 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 1.4 -4.1 -7.9 -10.3 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 1.1 -4.2 -7.1 -9.5 1.3 2.5 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 1.7 -2.4 -5.4 -8.8 3.4 5.3 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 0.7 -6.9 -9.7 -12.3 0.3 0.8 3.1 5.0 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 1.3 -4.8 -8.2 -10.7 0.8 1.7 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 97 3 0 100 0.2 -0.7 -2.2 -5.3 12.1 14.1 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 1.2 -2.5 -7.6 -9.4 1.8 3.5 3.1 4.6 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 99 1 0 100 -0.1 -2.5 -3.2 -6.7 7.2 9.2 2.5 4.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 -1.9 -5.6 -7.9 -8.1 2.6 4.7 0.2 1.9 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 1.2 -4.4 -6.4 -10.1 1.2 2.2 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 97 3 0 100 0.3 -1.1 -2.3 -5.7 10.6 12.8 2.8 5.0 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 0.7 -2.3 -3.8 -7.6 4.9 6.9 3.2 5.2 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 1.5 -3.4 -6.3 -9.5 2.0 3.6 4.1 6.2 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 0.2 -4.3 -6.7 -9.0 1.8 2.9 2.4 4.2 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 1.1 -3.5 -6.7 -8.7 1.5 2.6 3.2 5.0 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 -0.1 -3.6 -4.3 -7.3 3.9 5.3 2.5 4.5 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 1.5 -6.3 -10.3 -12.6 0.3 0.8 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 99 1 0 100 -1.7 -5.8 -7.4 -8.6 2.3 4.4 0.5 2.3 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 -0.4 -2.7 -3.1 -6.6 7.0 8.7 2.2 4.3 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------