***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 2.7 2.2 -3.1 23.1 27.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.5 3.4 2.5 -2.6 28.2 32.6 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 4.4 3.7 2.4 -3.3 23.3 27.7 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 -2.5 -3.5 -0.3 -4.1 17.5 21.8 -1.1 1.1 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 4.0 2.9 0.4 -4.0 18.3 22.4 5.2 7.4 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.7 2.8 -0.6 -3.3 19.7 24.3 4.6 6.5 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.0 2.9 2.5 -2.5 28.5 32.7 3.6 5.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 -2.8 -3.4 0.1 -3.4 19.6 23.8 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 4.6 3.7 1.2 -3.8 19.6 23.7 5.7 7.9 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 4.2 3.3 0.6 -3.6 20.1 24.3 5.3 7.5 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 4.0 3.1 0.6 -3.8 18.7 22.7 5.3 7.5 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 4.2 3.2 0.6 -3.6 18.5 22.5 5.3 7.3 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 4.1 3.1 0.2 -3.5 18.7 22.7 5.3 7.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.9 4.3 2.0 -3.1 25.3 29.7 5.5 7.9 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 2.5 1.4 -0.3 -4.0 17.4 21.9 3.9 6.2 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 4.5 3.4 0.2 -3.8 18.3 22.3 5.7 7.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.4 3.6 2.4 -2.2 30.8 34.8 3.9 5.9 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 3.9 3.4 0.4 -3.3 22.0 26.3 4.9 6.9 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.5 3.2 2.6 -2.8 27.4 31.9 4.1 6.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 0.8 0.2 -1.2 -2.9 22.4 27.1 1.5 3.4 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 4.3 3.5 1.7 -3.7 20.3 24.6 5.4 7.5 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.9 4.0 2.6 -2.4 30.2 34.5 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.9 3.4 2.6 -3.0 26.3 30.8 4.4 6.8 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 4.7 4.2 1.6 -3.3 22.9 27.2 5.7 8.0 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 3.5 2.8 0.6 -3.4 20.9 25.2 4.4 6.4 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 4.3 3.5 0.2 -3.4 17.9 21.8 5.3 7.0 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.1 3.5 1.5 -3.0 23.3 27.6 4.9 7.0 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 3.1 1.8 -0.3 -4.2 17.0 21.3 4.8 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 0.9 0.4 -0.2 -3.0 23.3 27.7 1.7 3.5 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.5 3.1 2.5 -2.8 26.6 31.1 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------