***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 1.4 4.0 -2.3 24.8 33.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.0 2.0 4.0 -2.2 27.0 34.7 2.9 5.0 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.5 2.3 4.2 -2.4 25.3 32.8 3.4 5.5 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 -3.9 -4.8 1.6 -3.0 20.5 27.6 -3.0 -1.0 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 2.5 1.8 2.3 -2.9 21.5 28.2 3.4 5.5 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.4 1.6 0.7 -2.6 22.5 29.0 2.9 4.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 1.6 1.6 3.9 -2.1 26.7 34.7 2.5 4.6 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 -5.3 -5.9 1.4 -2.8 21.0 27.7 -4.5 -2.8 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.6 2.0 3.0 -2.7 23.2 30.1 3.5 5.7 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 2.7 2.0 2.1 -2.8 22.0 28.9 3.6 5.7 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 2.7 2.1 2.3 -2.8 21.9 28.3 3.7 5.9 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 2.1 1.6 2.0 -2.8 21.2 27.4 3.3 5.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 2.7 2.1 1.5 -2.8 21.1 27.4 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 2.7 2.5 3.4 -2.5 25.2 32.1 3.7 5.8 7.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.1 1.4 1.8 -2.7 21.6 28.9 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 3.1 2.5 1.8 -2.9 21.3 27.5 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.9 2.0 3.8 -2.0 28.0 35.5 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 2.2 1.5 1.6 -2.7 21.8 29.1 3.0 5.1 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 1.8 1.9 4.2 -2.2 26.9 34.4 2.7 5.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 -0.7 -1.6 -0.4 -2.6 20.6 28.8 0.0 1.9 3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.6 2.2 3.7 -2.6 24.1 31.5 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 2.1 2.4 4.1 -2.1 28.4 35.4 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 2.0 2.0 4.3 -2.3 26.6 33.8 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 2.6 2.2 3.1 -2.6 23.7 30.8 3.6 5.7 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.0 1.5 2.4 -2.5 23.1 31.2 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 2.3 1.8 1.4 -2.7 20.3 26.7 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.3 1.8 3.2 -2.3 24.2 32.5 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.5 1.6 1.7 -3.0 20.7 27.4 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 -1.5 -2.4 0.8 -2.7 21.4 29.1 -0.6 1.5 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 1.8 1.7 4.1 -2.2 26.2 34.1 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------