***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 4.7 6.3 -1.0 39.5 42.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.4 6.1 -1.2 37.9 42.1 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.9 6.3 6.5 -1.2 38.6 42.0 5.5 7.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -1.5 -0.8 4.1 -1.6 35.1 38.3 -1.0 1.2 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.2 6.2 4.7 -1.5 36.4 39.3 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.3 5.4 3.0 -1.4 36.6 39.4 4.9 7.2 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.0 6.0 -1.2 38.1 42.3 4.2 6.6 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -3.6 -2.7 3.6 -1.4 36.4 38.9 -3.1 -1.1 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.7 6.9 5.5 -1.2 38.6 41.1 6.1 8.4 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.7 6.8 4.4 -1.4 37.2 39.7 6.2 8.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.6 6.7 4.7 -1.4 37.1 39.6 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 5.1 6.2 4.4 -1.3 36.9 39.3 5.7 7.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.4 6.5 3.8 -1.4 36.3 39.0 6.1 8.4 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.6 6.9 5.5 -1.3 37.7 40.7 6.1 8.6 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 8.3 5.6 4.4 -1.4 36.4 39.7 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.8 6.8 4.2 -1.5 36.0 38.8 6.3 8.7 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.5 5.0 5.8 -1.2 38.1 42.4 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.3 6.4 3.8 -1.4 36.7 39.4 5.9 8.2 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.1 5.4 6.3 -1.2 37.9 41.9 4.6 7.1 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 1.1 2.2 1.6 -1.3 36.4 39.1 1.7 3.9 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.3 6.8 6.1 -1.1 39.3 42.1 5.9 8.3 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.2 5.5 6.1 -1.2 38.3 42.3 4.7 7.1 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.7 5.9 6.4 -1.3 38.0 41.6 5.1 7.6 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.6 6.7 5.4 -1.3 37.6 40.5 6.0 8.3 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.5 5.8 4.8 -1.1 39.0 42.0 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 5.3 6.3 3.7 -1.3 36.6 39.4 5.8 8.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.7 6.1 5.5 -1.0 39.6 42.8 5.2 7.5 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.0 5.6 4.3 -1.6 34.7 37.9 5.4 7.9 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 1.2 2.5 2.9 -1.4 36.7 39.4 2.0 4.3 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.0 5.3 6.2 -1.2 38.1 42.1 4.5 6.9 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------