***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 33.7 42.9 111.2 65.0 59.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 26.4 32.6 42.6 115.2 67.3 60.9 15.3 22.7 31.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 39.0 46.6 44.3 113.1 66.6 59.4 23.2 33.6 46.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 46.0 55.2 50.3 117.4 68.9 60.8 31.0 41.1 52.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 45.4 51.9 48.9 112.1 65.8 58.8 30.8 40.7 52.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 36.7 38.3 48.1 104.7 60.0 55.9 25.2 33.1 41.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 25.5 30.8 41.5 114.0 66.5 60.4 15.5 22.4 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 67.7 75.6 54.6 114.0 66.9 60.0 50.9 62.4 74.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 36.8 42.2 49.4 111.6 65.7 59.4 23.6 32.3 42.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 45.8 52.1 53.1 112.0 66.1 59.5 31.3 41.1 51.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 40.0 43.5 46.0 108.4 62.9 56.9 27.0 35.7 45.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 42.3 47.2 47.3 111.0 64.7 58.3 28.2 37.7 48.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 44.2 48.0 48.8 108.6 63.1 57.6 29.6 39.4 50.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 46.8 54.1 54.3 114.1 67.5 59.6 33.0 42.5 53.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 51.0 52.5 48.3 122.6 71.0 61.6 19.3 31.6 46.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 36.1 39.9 47.4 109.7 63.9 58.1 24.8 32.5 41.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 36.3 36.1 40.9 117.6 68.4 62.1 17.5 25.4 34.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 41.9 50.8 60.6 115.6 69.1 61.0 27.0 36.9 48.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 30.3 36.8 43.7 115.1 67.4 60.7 18.1 26.1 35.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 57.2 60.2 77.3 124.2 73.8 64.5 30.3 40.8 52.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 38.1 45.3 46.5 113.0 66.7 59.9 23.9 33.5 44.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 36.0 35.7 43.1 117.4 68.4 62.3 17.0 24.8 34.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 28.0 33.6 46.3 114.1 67.1 60.0 17.1 24.4 32.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 45.9 52.8 52.8 113.0 67.0 59.2 32.6 41.8 52.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 40.6 48.2 50.5 113.1 66.4 60.3 23.9 34.7 47.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 35.5 42.3 52.1 115.8 67.9 61.4 23.7 31.8 41.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 43.0 38.9 46.8 110.2 64.3 59.2 20.2 29.3 40.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 36.9 46.6 48.0 116.9 68.2 60.2 21.2 31.7 44.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 80.1 82.4 67.4 119.3 71.4 62.5 49.7 62.6 76.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 27.7 33.6 42.7 113.7 66.5 60.1 16.1 23.8 33.2 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------