***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 9.5 12.1 106.6 65.4 55.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.7 8.9 11.8 107.5 66.5 57.5 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.7 11.7 12.5 111.2 67.0 57.2 3.5 6.9 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 14.8 13.9 14.5 116.2 68.7 57.3 3.9 7.6 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 14.6 13.4 14.1 113.9 67.5 57.4 4.6 8.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.5 9.1 14.2 105.9 64.9 58.5 3.7 6.1 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.7 7.5 11.5 104.8 65.8 56.5 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 13.7 18.1 16.1 114.9 67.9 58.7 6.0 10.8 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.5 11.1 14.1 113.5 67.3 57.6 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.0 14.7 15.3 115.1 67.7 58.3 4.4 8.5 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.6 11.7 13.4 110.6 66.3 56.9 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.9 10.4 14.0 111.7 67.0 58.1 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.2 10.9 14.5 111.0 66.6 59.1 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 10.5 14.9 15.3 118.4 68.9 59.6 4.1 8.1 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 13.3 13.3 14.6 123.0 71.2 58.1 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 10.7 9.7 13.8 110.4 66.5 58.1 3.2 5.9 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.6 10.3 11.4 111.2 67.9 58.1 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.0 12.4 17.6 121.6 69.8 59.4 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.1 10.9 12.2 110.5 67.3 58.2 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.1 13.2 23.1 124.7 71.1 60.5 4.0 7.0 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.2 12.4 13.2 111.9 67.0 57.0 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 10.8 10.3 12.2 114.4 68.8 59.7 3.1 5.9 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.7 10.5 12.9 113.4 67.7 58.6 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.6 14.8 15.1 117.6 68.5 58.4 4.4 8.3 13.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.6 12.0 14.3 108.0 65.4 55.2 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 9.0 9.0 16.0 119.1 69.7 61.9 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 9.3 11.4 13.1 104.5 64.4 54.7 3.9 7.4 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 12.0 11.3 14.1 117.4 69.3 58.0 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.5 20.3 20.0 126.4 71.4 60.3 5.4 10.3 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.7 8.7 11.9 106.5 65.9 56.6 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------