***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 14.5 14.2 154.2 79.0 66.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 10.1 13.5 14.4 157.5 79.6 67.1 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 14.5 18.3 14.6 149.8 78.2 65.9 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 16.9 21.3 15.9 155.2 79.3 67.6 6.5 10.3 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 17.7 22.1 15.8 151.2 78.6 67.3 5.9 10.1 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 11.6 12.2 14.5 124.8 71.0 62.9 4.3 7.2 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 8.8 12.1 14.1 159.8 80.1 67.3 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 23.3 27.5 17.5 158.7 80.4 71.3 12.4 16.7 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 14.4 17.9 15.9 148.1 77.9 67.2 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 17.1 21.6 17.2 151.2 78.8 69.1 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 14.1 17.5 14.7 148.6 78.1 67.8 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 15.8 19.2 14.8 152.6 78.8 69.8 5.1 8.8 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 15.6 17.5 14.7 136.8 74.8 66.1 5.5 9.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 17.1 20.9 18.2 147.0 77.3 67.2 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 14.2 18.3 14.7 153.6 78.4 67.3 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 12.2 14.5 14.3 141.4 76.0 66.7 3.6 6.5 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 9.2 12.5 13.6 162.5 80.6 68.2 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 16.3 21.2 19.5 149.4 78.2 69.2 5.1 9.3 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 11.5 14.5 14.6 153.2 78.7 66.4 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 16.7 23.3 24.9 169.4 82.6 73.2 5.7 9.7 14.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 13.9 18.1 15.1 150.8 78.5 66.7 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 10.2 12.8 13.5 151.8 78.3 66.6 2.8 5.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 10.6 13.0 15.4 149.0 77.8 65.5 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 15.1 18.8 17.2 144.9 77.0 67.0 4.3 8.1 13.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 15.1 20.0 16.8 157.6 79.9 68.7 3.7 7.4 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 11.9 13.9 15.1 145.1 76.8 69.2 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 12.1 15.9 15.7 155.8 79.4 67.9 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 15.2 19.4 14.6 147.7 77.2 66.5 3.3 7.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 25.4 32.5 21.5 152.6 79.0 70.1 9.9 15.9 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 11.1 14.6 14.4 155.5 79.3 66.4 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------