***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 8.7 11.2 134.3 73.9 60.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 8.4 10.1 11.6 141.7 75.8 63.3 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 8.9 15.2 11.6 136.1 74.4 61.9 3.4 6.8 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.1 13.8 12.2 128.0 72.2 61.1 3.7 6.9 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 11.8 12.1 12.3 124.6 71.1 59.7 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.5 10.7 11.6 107.2 65.7 54.8 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.2 10.6 11.2 140.1 75.4 62.3 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.0 18.9 13.3 116.8 68.8 59.1 8.0 12.4 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.3 10.9 12.3 122.8 70.6 58.2 2.9 5.7 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 12.5 12.4 13.3 119.4 69.6 59.2 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.4 11.5 11.6 117.4 69.1 58.7 3.5 6.4 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.7 14.3 11.5 115.9 68.6 57.9 4.5 8.3 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.1 13.2 11.8 114.3 68.0 56.5 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 9.3 15.4 14.5 133.9 73.8 61.4 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 12.0 12.4 10.6 124.9 71.4 59.2 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.4 11.1 11.5 115.1 68.3 57.6 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 10.5 13.5 11.5 147.1 77.2 62.7 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 12.2 12.6 15.5 124.8 71.2 60.9 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 8.8 10.7 11.8 140.5 75.5 63.4 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 16.8 17.6 18.9 127.5 71.9 62.6 5.1 9.2 14.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.8 12.7 11.8 131.7 73.1 59.3 2.8 5.6 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 9.7 12.3 12.4 146.9 77.3 63.2 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 5.3 8.9 12.3 137.4 74.7 62.7 2.3 4.3 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.8 15.0 13.8 130.4 72.8 60.9 4.0 7.5 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 12.1 13.3 13.0 131.9 73.2 61.6 2.7 5.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 12.1 11.6 12.0 115.9 68.5 57.9 3.9 6.8 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.0 11.0 12.2 131.1 73.0 61.2 2.8 5.4 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.9 11.5 11.0 119.3 69.8 58.2 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 21.6 22.6 17.0 127.2 71.9 61.9 6.2 11.6 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.3 11.3 11.3 138.1 74.9 62.9 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------