***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 1.4 1.5 0.1 3.0 73.4 72.5 -3.8 -1.6 0.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 0.4 0.4 -0.1 2.6 71.4 70.6 -4.1 -2.1 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 2.5 2.6 0.0 2.7 72.0 71.2 -1.6 0.2 1.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 47 53 100 -3.4 -3.3 -3.3 2.1 67.1 66.5 -7.1 -5.2 -3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 0.2 0.3 -1.7 3.0 74.0 73.2 -4.2 -2.4 -0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 -1.2 -1.4 -5.0 2.2 68.8 67.7 -5.2 -3.4 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 0.3 0.3 -0.1 2.5 70.7 69.8 -4.0 -2.1 -0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 -5.6 -5.3 -3.7 3.1 75.4 74.0 -8.7 -7.4 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 1.0 1.2 -1.5 3.2 76.0 75.3 -3.3 -1.6 0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 0.6 0.9 -2.9 3.2 75.7 74.7 -3.4 -1.8 -0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 0.4 0.3 -2.8 2.8 72.5 71.6 -4.1 -2.2 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 -1.0 -0.9 -3.2 2.8 72.3 71.1 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 -0.5 -0.9 -4.1 2.0 66.5 65.4 -4.7 -2.8 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 0.6 0.8 -2.0 2.7 71.5 70.5 -2.8 -1.2 0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 -1.8 -1.0 -3.3 1.2 60.8 60.6 -4.1 -2.1 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 0.3 0.2 -3.8 2.2 67.7 66.8 -3.4 -1.6 0.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 -0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 71.0 70.0 -3.9 -2.2 -0.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 -1.8 -1.4 -3.3 3.1 75.0 73.7 -5.5 -3.9 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 0.3 0.3 -0.3 2.5 70.8 70.1 -4.2 -2.2 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 -4.3 -3.4 -4.2 3.3 76.3 74.5 -9.3 -7.1 -5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 0.8 1.0 -0.4 3.1 74.2 73.4 -3.6 -1.7 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 2.3 69.2 68.3 -4.2 -2.4 -0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 -0.3 -0.2 -0.8 2.4 70.2 69.6 -4.1 -2.3 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 0.0 0.2 -2.0 2.8 72.6 71.8 -3.7 -2.1 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 0.6 0.7 -0.7 3.3 75.0 74.2 -3.7 -1.9 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 -0.2 -0.1 -3.3 2.9 73.6 72.0 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 1.6 1.7 -0.1 3.3 74.2 73.3 -3.9 -1.6 0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 -2.6 -1.7 -3.6 1.5 62.0 61.6 -4.9 -3.0 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 -1.9 -1.4 -3.8 3.3 76.6 75.2 -5.6 -4.0 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 0.8 0.8 0.0 2.6 71.7 70.9 -3.7 -1.7 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------