***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 0.9 0.8 -0.2 1.6 66.3 64.3 -2.2 -0.7 0.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 1.3 64.2 62.6 -3.6 -1.8 -0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 2.2 2.0 -0.1 1.5 66.1 64.5 -1.0 0.6 2.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 -3.1 -3.3 -3.1 1.6 66.7 64.7 -7.1 -5.2 -3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 -0.3 -0.2 -2.3 2.1 69.9 67.9 -3.5 -2.0 -0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 -0.8 -0.7 -4.5 2.1 69.3 66.7 -4.2 -2.6 -1.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 -0.9 0.0 -0.2 1.4 64.7 62.6 -3.2 -1.5 0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -5.5 -5.5 -4.2 2.1 69.1 67.1 -9.8 -7.8 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 0.7 0.8 -1.8 2.1 70.4 68.4 -2.7 -1.1 0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 0.5 0.5 -3.4 2.0 69.2 67.1 -2.5 -1.1 0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 0.2 0.2 -3.1 2.1 69.5 67.7 -2.8 -1.4 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 -0.7 -0.7 -3.5 2.2 69.7 67.8 -3.9 -2.4 -1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 0.0 0.1 -3.8 2.2 69.6 67.2 -3.4 -1.8 -0.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 0.8 0.5 -2.2 1.6 65.8 64.0 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 0.1 -0.3 -2.2 1.4 64.9 63.6 -2.9 -1.5 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 0.8 0.8 -3.6 2.0 68.9 66.8 -2.2 -0.8 0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 -1.1 -0.3 -0.1 1.3 64.4 62.3 -3.4 -1.7 -0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 -1.7 -1.8 -4.1 2.0 68.4 66.1 -4.8 -3.4 -2.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 -1.1 -0.3 -0.4 1.2 63.8 62.4 -3.3 -1.6 -0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 -4.3 -4.3 -5.5 1.9 67.6 65.1 -8.4 -6.4 -4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 0.5 0.6 -0.6 2.0 69.7 67.7 -3.0 -1.3 0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 -1.5 -0.7 -0.5 1.2 63.3 61.7 -3.7 -2.0 -0.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 1.3 64.2 63.0 -3.2 -1.9 -0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 0.2 0.0 -2.4 1.8 67.5 65.6 -2.7 -1.4 -0.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 0.2 0.4 -1.3 2.0 69.8 67.5 -3.4 -1.7 0.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 0.3 0.4 -3.8 2.4 71.5 68.9 -3.2 -1.6 -0.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 0.6 0.6 -0.5 1.8 67.4 65.1 -3.6 -1.5 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 -1.3 -1.7 -3.0 1.4 64.1 62.8 -4.4 -2.9 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 -2.0 -2.3 -4.6 1.9 67.6 65.2 -6.0 -4.2 -2.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 0.4 0.1 -0.3 1.3 64.4 62.8 -3.1 -1.4 0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------