***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 6.8 6.9 6.3 2.6 70.8 69.4 2.0 4.2 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 6.8 7.0 6.7 2.5 70.0 68.9 2.5 4.5 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 7.8 7.9 6.7 2.5 68.7 67.6 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 -0.2 -1.5 0.0 -1.0 42.5 43.4 -2.6 -0.7 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 48 52 100 6.8 6.6 4.3 1.8 63.9 63.1 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 6.1 6.1 3.2 2.1 67.1 66.4 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 6.6 6.8 6.7 2.6 71.7 70.6 2.0 4.1 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 0.4 0.2 4.3 2.4 67.4 67.0 -3.3 -1.6 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 8.0 8.0 5.9 2.4 67.7 66.8 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 7.8 7.8 5.5 2.8 69.6 68.9 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 5.9 6.8 4.5 1.5 61.0 60.6 3.6 5.5 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 6.0 6.9 3.9 1.6 62.3 61.9 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 48 52 100 7.1 7.0 4.8 1.9 64.5 64.1 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 8.6 8.7 6.9 2.6 67.8 66.9 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 2.0 2.1 -0.9 -3.9 24.7 26.1 3.1 5.0 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 6.0 6.8 3.7 1.4 60.8 60.4 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 6.3 6.4 6.4 2.3 69.4 68.4 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 6.6 6.8 5.9 3.7 74.9 74.1 3.1 4.6 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 7.0 7.1 6.6 2.3 68.6 67.5 2.5 4.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 4.7 5.1 4.9 4.2 79.5 78.9 0.2 1.9 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 7.8 7.7 6.6 2.4 68.1 67.1 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 5.5 6.5 5.7 1.5 62.3 61.4 2.8 5.0 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 46 54 100 7.0 7.0 6.3 2.1 65.9 64.9 3.2 5.2 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 8.6 8.7 6.8 2.9 70.0 69.1 4.1 6.2 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 5.9 5.9 4.9 2.2 66.9 65.7 2.4 4.2 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 6.8 6.7 3.7 2.0 67.2 66.7 3.2 5.0 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 7.2 7.6 6.4 3.1 74.7 73.1 2.5 4.5 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.6 4.3 -0.2 -2.3 35.5 36.6 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 5.0 5.5 6.0 4.3 79.3 78.6 0.5 2.3 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 6.7 6.9 6.7 2.5 70.4 69.2 2.2 4.3 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------