***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 7.9 7.8 8.0 1.9 68.7 66.0 3.8 5.7 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 7.4 7.4 8.2 2.0 69.5 67.1 2.9 5.0 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 7.9 7.7 8.3 1.7 66.9 64.5 3.4 5.5 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -0.4 -0.5 4.2 0.5 55.2 54.4 -3.0 -1.0 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 6.2 7.1 6.1 1.3 63.2 60.9 3.4 5.5 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.1 4.6 1.2 61.8 59.4 2.9 4.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 7.0 7.1 8.2 2.0 70.3 67.7 2.5 4.6 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 -1.0 -1.2 5.6 1.6 66.1 63.1 -4.5 -2.8 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.4 7.7 7.1 1.6 65.7 63.0 3.5 5.7 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 7.9 7.7 6.3 1.7 66.7 63.5 3.6 5.7 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.6 7.6 6.2 1.4 64.2 61.6 3.7 5.9 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 6.0 7.0 6.0 1.4 64.6 62.0 3.3 5.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 8.1 7.7 5.4 1.5 65.6 62.7 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 8.1 8.0 7.6 1.8 67.3 64.4 3.7 5.8 7.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 5.7 5.5 4.7 0.3 53.6 53.1 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.7 5.5 1.2 62.4 60.1 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 6.9 7.1 8.2 2.0 70.4 67.7 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 7.2 7.3 6.5 1.9 68.8 65.0 3.0 5.1 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 7.5 7.4 8.3 1.9 68.5 66.1 2.7 5.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 4.0 4.3 4.5 2.0 71.4 67.0 0.0 1.9 3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 7.8 7.6 7.7 1.7 66.1 63.6 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 7.4 7.5 8.2 1.9 69.3 66.8 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 7.5 7.3 8.4 1.7 67.1 64.7 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 8.0 7.9 7.5 1.7 66.8 63.8 3.6 5.7 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 7.0 6.8 6.3 1.7 67.4 64.6 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 7.7 7.8 5.5 1.7 69.0 65.8 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 7.7 7.7 7.5 2.0 69.7 66.7 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.3 5.7 4.2 0.1 51.4 51.2 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 3.9 4.1 5.9 2.0 70.1 66.0 -0.6 1.5 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 7.1 7.1 8.1 1.9 68.8 66.5 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------