***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 10.8 10.9 9.1 2.1 70.5 67.3 5.8 8.1 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 10.0 10.0 9.0 2.0 70.5 67.2 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 10.7 10.7 9.5 2.1 69.9 66.5 5.5 7.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 1.9 3.2 6.2 1.6 65.1 62.6 -1.0 1.2 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 10.6 10.8 7.7 2.1 69.3 65.8 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 9.5 9.9 6.1 2.2 69.3 65.6 4.9 7.2 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 9.5 9.6 9.0 2.1 71.1 67.8 4.2 6.6 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 1.0 1.1 6.7 2.1 69.5 65.9 -3.1 -1.1 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 11.1 11.3 8.4 2.2 70.0 66.2 6.1 8.4 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 11.0 11.2 7.5 2.3 70.0 66.0 6.2 8.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 10.9 11.2 7.7 2.2 70.1 66.3 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 10.3 10.6 7.4 2.1 69.9 66.4 5.7 7.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 10.7 11.4 6.7 2.3 71.6 67.8 6.1 8.4 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 11.5 11.4 8.5 2.1 69.0 65.1 6.1 8.6 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 9.8 9.4 6.9 1.7 66.4 63.7 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 11.1 11.5 7.2 2.2 70.0 66.4 6.3 8.7 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 9.2 9.4 9.0 2.0 71.0 67.6 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 10.6 10.9 7.4 2.3 70.0 65.9 5.9 8.2 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 10.1 10.0 9.3 2.0 69.9 66.7 4.6 7.1 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 6.1 6.6 5.0 2.2 70.6 66.9 1.7 3.9 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 11.0 11.1 9.0 2.2 70.3 66.7 5.9 8.3 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 10.0 10.1 9.1 2.0 70.4 67.2 4.7 7.1 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 10.4 10.4 9.5 2.0 69.2 65.9 5.1 7.6 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 11.0 11.0 8.5 2.2 69.3 65.4 6.0 8.3 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 10.0 10.1 7.5 2.2 70.7 67.4 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 10.5 11.2 6.7 2.4 73.3 69.5 5.8 8.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 10.3 10.5 8.4 2.1 70.9 67.7 5.2 7.5 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 10.3 9.9 6.4 1.6 64.3 61.8 5.4 7.9 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 6.6 7.0 6.6 2.2 70.1 66.0 2.0 4.3 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 9.8 9.8 9.0 2.0 70.2 67.1 4.5 6.9 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------