***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 8.6 9.3 8.0 2.5 79.3 76.6 4.5 6.2 7.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 8.1 8.8 8.2 2.4 78.7 76.4 4.0 5.7 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 8.8 9.5 8.5 2.5 78.2 75.5 4.9 6.6 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 0.6 0.8 3.6 0.7 57.8 57.1 -1.3 0.1 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 8.4 8.9 6.3 2.1 74.7 72.2 4.9 6.5 8.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 7.5 7.9 4.9 2.0 76.1 72.6 4.3 5.7 7.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 7.7 8.6 8.1 2.4 79.8 77.5 3.5 5.3 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 0.0 0.4 5.8 2.3 77.8 74.9 -2.7 -1.6 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 9.1 9.8 7.5 2.4 78.4 75.3 5.4 7.0 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 8.9 9.6 6.7 2.5 79.4 76.2 5.3 6.8 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 8.8 9.1 6.5 2.0 74.3 71.7 5.3 6.8 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 8.3 8.6 6.0 2.0 74.5 71.9 5.1 6.5 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 8.6 9.0 5.9 2.1 76.1 73.0 5.3 6.7 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 9.6 10.3 8.1 2.6 79.0 75.7 5.5 7.2 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 6.4 5.7 3.8 -0.2 47.8 48.2 4.3 5.9 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 8.8 9.1 5.7 1.8 72.8 70.1 5.6 7.1 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 7.6 8.3 8.0 2.4 79.5 77.1 3.7 5.3 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 8.3 9.3 6.9 2.9 83.5 79.7 4.7 6.2 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 8.2 9.0 8.3 2.4 78.0 75.6 4.0 5.8 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 4.7 6.0 5.1 3.1 86.7 83.1 1.4 2.7 3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 8.8 9.6 8.1 2.4 78.3 75.4 5.2 6.7 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 8.2 8.9 8.0 2.1 76.5 74.2 4.2 6.0 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 8.4 9.1 8.4 2.3 77.0 74.4 4.4 6.2 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 9.2 10.0 8.0 2.6 80.0 76.6 5.5 7.1 8.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 7.8 8.3 6.5 2.3 77.5 74.8 4.1 5.7 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 8.2 8.8 5.5 2.3 80.1 77.3 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 8.5 9.3 7.7 2.7 81.6 78.7 4.5 6.1 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.2 6.8 3.7 0.1 51.4 51.3 4.9 6.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 5.0 6.3 6.5 3.1 85.7 81.9 1.5 2.9 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 8.0 8.6 8.2 2.4 78.6 76.2 3.9 5.6 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------