***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 1.1 1.2 3.3 35.1 31.3 24.1 1.3 2.5 4.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 1.5 2.2 3.9 51.6 41.7 30.7 1.7 2.8 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 1.6 1.6 2.9 32.1 29.3 23.4 2.0 3.9 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 3.0 4.1 4.6 36.9 34.5 29.2 3.8 6.6 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 2.6 2.1 2.9 23.9 22.4 19.0 3.4 6.3 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 2.0 1.8 2.5 21.6 21.9 17.4 3.0 5.3 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 1.6 2.6 4.0 53.7 42.9 30.5 1.9 3.2 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 3.5 2.8 2.8 21.8 20.1 17.5 5.5 10.1 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 1.9 1.7 2.7 25.0 23.5 19.6 2.5 4.3 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 1.8 1.4 2.8 22.7 20.5 17.7 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 2.3 1.9 2.8 23.7 22.0 18.8 3.1 5.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 2.0 1.6 2.4 21.3 20.7 17.5 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 2.3 1.6 2.5 19.0 19.0 16.2 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 1.7 1.5 2.9 25.3 22.8 19.4 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 1.7 2.8 4.9 45.0 43.1 35.2 1.5 4.0 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 2.3 1.9 2.7 22.1 22.1 18.2 3.1 5.2 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.5 2.8 4.3 60.8 47.1 34.0 1.7 3.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 2.3 1.8 2.9 22.7 20.5 17.9 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 1.5 2.0 3.5 45.7 37.8 29.1 1.7 3.1 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 1.5 1.3 3.8 24.6 22.7 19.8 2.2 4.7 8.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 2.1 1.9 3.1 28.7 26.8 22.0 2.5 4.4 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 1.4 2.3 4.2 56.6 44.4 33.5 1.5 2.8 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 1.3 1.4 3.1 37.2 32.1 26.2 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 2.9 2.5 2.7 24.3 22.7 19.3 3.8 6.2 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 1.8 1.7 3.6 29.8 26.5 21.5 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 1.8 1.3 2.5 21.0 21.3 17.8 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 1.9 2.3 3.6 35.5 30.5 23.2 2.5 4.2 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 1.6 2.1 4.2 37.1 35.6 29.9 1.9 3.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 3.3 2.8 3.3 24.4 22.0 19.1 4.6 8.2 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 1.5 2.1 3.7 47.0 38.9 28.5 1.8 2.8 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------