***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.4 4.0 8.3 66.3 46.6 37.4 2.3 4.4 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.0 5.0 7.4 70.5 50.0 40.4 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.0 8.7 73.0 50.7 40.5 3.5 6.9 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.2 8.1 9.8 75.5 52.0 41.9 3.9 7.6 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.3 8.6 10.0 76.7 52.2 42.1 4.6 8.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.4 5.5 7.7 69.6 46.2 37.5 3.7 6.1 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.4 7.3 70.1 49.9 39.9 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 5.9 10.9 10.1 75.8 50.6 41.5 6.0 10.8 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.3 6.8 10.1 76.7 51.4 41.5 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.6 9.3 10.6 79.9 53.0 43.0 4.4 8.5 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.9 7.3 9.7 76.6 50.9 41.5 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.2 6.0 9.0 73.8 49.4 40.4 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.3 6.4 9.2 74.6 49.6 40.7 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.6 9.3 11.9 82.8 54.0 42.9 4.1 8.1 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.3 7.1 8.7 73.1 52.9 41.8 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.1 6.1 9.1 75.8 50.9 41.5 3.2 5.9 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.3 6.3 7.7 72.2 51.8 41.3 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.0 7.2 10.7 76.2 50.8 41.4 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.5 6.2 7.8 71.4 49.9 40.4 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.8 6.6 12.3 69.5 47.6 39.7 4.0 7.0 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.5 6.9 9.3 72.4 49.2 39.7 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.3 6.3 8.3 74.2 52.7 42.8 3.1 5.9 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.3 5.9 8.8 73.3 49.9 40.0 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.6 8.9 10.6 78.7 52.1 41.6 4.4 8.3 13.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.8 7.0 9.7 68.8 48.5 38.5 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.5 4.4 8.7 72.1 48.1 40.0 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.1 6.5 8.6 65.2 46.1 36.8 3.9 7.4 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.1 6.7 9.1 78.5 54.1 43.5 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 5.4 9.8 11.3 73.2 48.8 40.5 5.4 10.3 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.0 5.0 7.5 69.6 49.3 39.3 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------