***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.3 6.4 7.7 70.6 49.8 37.4 3.4 6.4 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 1.8 5.6 7.4 83.4 56.6 39.8 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.2 7.2 8.1 75.9 52.1 38.9 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.3 13.3 10.6 93.1 60.3 45.6 6.5 10.3 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.0 11.6 10.4 84.1 54.9 41.8 5.9 10.1 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.3 6.8 8.7 69.5 47.9 39.6 4.3 7.2 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.9 5.3 7.4 85.4 57.2 41.0 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 12.0 17.5 10.8 81.9 53.0 43.0 12.4 16.7 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.2 8.7 11.0 82.7 53.8 40.9 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.4 10.6 11.7 83.9 53.6 42.2 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.8 8.2 10.1 82.3 54.0 42.0 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.3 9.2 9.5 78.8 52.1 42.3 5.1 8.8 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.5 8.8 9.5 72.8 48.4 40.0 5.5 9.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.9 10.7 11.5 86.1 55.3 41.0 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.8 12.9 11.1 111.4 67.9 50.8 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.5 6.8 9.4 77.1 51.1 40.8 3.6 6.5 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.9 5.3 7.1 83.4 56.7 40.9 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.4 10.4 12.3 84.9 54.1 43.5 5.1 9.3 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 2.7 7.0 7.9 83.8 56.6 40.0 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.0 10.4 13.7 82.1 52.9 44.8 5.7 9.7 14.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.5 7.4 9.3 75.8 51.5 39.0 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 2.6 6.7 7.8 84.8 57.2 41.4 2.8 5.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.8 6.6 8.9 85.3 56.6 40.7 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.6 9.2 10.7 83.2 54.0 41.3 4.3 8.1 13.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.7 7.5 9.0 73.3 50.6 38.5 3.7 7.4 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.9 7.1 9.1 76.7 52.0 41.9 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.0 5.8 8.2 71.0 49.9 37.9 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.6 11.3 10.5 98.4 62.1 47.1 3.3 7.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.2 17.3 12.8 83.7 53.3 43.6 9.9 15.9 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.4 6.5 7.7 81.8 55.8 39.5 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------