***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 14.0 15.3 29.9 66.5 30.5 30.4 16.4 24.6 34.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 13.9 17.6 27.6 74.9 38.4 36.3 15.3 22.7 31.7 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 19.7 22.9 30.3 69.4 32.7 32.3 23.2 33.6 46.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 28.4 32.2 35.4 70.9 35.4 34.3 31.0 41.1 52.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 27.1 28.9 34.2 66.7 29.5 30.6 30.8 40.7 52.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 21.8 20.4 29.6 60.6 22.2 25.6 25.2 33.1 41.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 13.8 17.5 27.3 75.0 38.4 35.9 15.5 22.4 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 47.7 47.5 35.7 67.3 27.8 30.4 50.9 62.4 74.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 21.0 22.2 35.6 68.5 30.2 31.1 23.6 32.3 42.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 28.6 29.3 37.6 69.0 28.9 30.9 31.3 41.1 51.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 24.2 24.9 33.1 67.0 28.8 30.8 27.0 35.7 45.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 25.8 25.0 31.1 65.0 26.7 29.4 28.2 37.7 48.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 25.5 23.7 32.1 61.3 22.5 26.3 29.6 39.4 50.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 29.3 32.8 40.0 73.6 32.5 33.1 33.0 42.5 53.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 18.7 26.6 34.4 77.3 44.0 40.4 19.3 31.6 46.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 22.2 21.7 31.5 63.8 25.8 28.5 24.8 32.5 41.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 16.6 20.1 26.8 74.8 38.8 36.4 17.5 25.4 34.5 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 24.2 24.6 39.8 69.7 28.8 31.0 27.0 36.9 48.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 16.0 20.0 28.6 74.4 37.3 35.7 18.1 26.1 35.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 26.7 28.1 47.7 69.6 29.5 31.4 30.3 40.8 52.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 20.5 21.8 32.5 66.2 29.2 30.1 23.9 33.5 44.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 15.7 19.4 28.5 74.8 38.5 36.8 17.0 24.8 34.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 14.6 18.0 31.3 73.9 35.2 34.5 17.1 24.4 32.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 29.2 31.7 36.8 71.0 31.3 32.1 32.6 41.8 52.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 19.3 20.5 33.7 64.1 27.4 28.4 23.9 34.7 47.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 21.3 21.3 31.4 64.8 27.8 29.7 23.7 31.8 41.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 16.6 18.1 31.2 65.4 28.8 29.3 20.2 29.3 40.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 20.0 24.0 33.4 72.7 37.6 36.1 21.2 31.7 44.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 45.1 46.5 42.6 70.1 28.8 31.3 49.7 62.6 76.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 14.4 18.1 28.4 74.1 37.6 35.5 16.1 23.8 33.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------