***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 1.0 4.9 2.6 6.3 94.3 93.4 -4.8 -2.7 -0.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 0.3 4.5 2.8 6.4 95.7 94.8 -5.2 -3.2 -1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 2.6 5.5 2.5 6.1 93.0 92.1 -2.4 -0.6 1.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -3.0 -0.2 0.6 6.9 92.5 92.1 -8.2 -6.3 -4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 -0.7 1.3 0.7 6.4 90.5 89.9 -5.1 -3.5 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -1.7 0.8 -1.3 6.4 92.4 91.8 -6.1 -4.5 -3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.4 4.7 2.7 6.3 95.9 95.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -5.3 -2.6 -0.4 7.0 92.8 91.9 -10.0 -8.3 -6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 0.6 2.5 1.0 6.3 89.9 89.3 -3.9 -2.3 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 -0.3 1.7 0.1 6.7 91.5 90.7 -4.3 -2.8 -1.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 -0.7 1.0 0.1 6.2 89.8 89.1 -4.8 -3.3 -1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 -1.7 0.2 0.1 6.7 91.7 91.0 -5.6 -4.2 -2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 -0.9 1.2 -0.4 6.3 90.8 90.1 -5.3 -3.7 -2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 0.9 3.4 1.2 6.8 93.1 92.1 -3.4 -1.9 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 0.1 2.5 1.8 6.8 92.5 92.1 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 0.0 1.7 -0.4 6.2 90.0 89.5 -4.0 -2.5 -1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 0.0 3.8 2.9 6.5 95.3 94.5 -4.9 -3.1 -1.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 -2.6 -0.3 -0.1 7.0 93.2 92.2 -6.4 -5.0 -3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.4 4.2 2.5 6.2 95.0 94.0 -4.9 -3.0 -1.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 -5.1 -1.1 -1.0 7.9 95.3 94.3 -10.5 -8.5 -6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 0.1 2.3 2.4 6.5 91.4 90.7 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 0.2 4.5 2.9 6.6 95.8 95.0 -5.1 -3.2 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 -0.1 2.6 1.9 6.0 93.6 92.5 -4.5 -2.9 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 -0.3 1.8 1.1 6.5 91.8 90.8 -4.5 -3.0 -1.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 -0.3 2.4 1.8 6.7 93.2 92.5 -4.8 -3.2 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -0.8 1.6 -0.2 6.7 92.5 91.7 -5.2 -3.6 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 0.9 4.7 2.1 6.6 93.8 93.1 -5.0 -2.8 -0.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 -1.3 0.9 1.1 6.9 92.0 91.6 -5.6 -4.0 -2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 -2.0 1.2 -1.0 7.2 94.1 92.8 -6.9 -5.1 -3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 0.8 5.0 2.7 6.3 95.5 94.6 -4.8 -2.8 -0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------