***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 1.4 2.6 2.2 4.6 83.9 81.9 -3.3 -1.5 0.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 0.6 1.7 1.9 4.3 83.1 81.0 -4.1 -2.3 -0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 2.9 3.9 1.8 4.4 83.6 81.8 -1.7 0.0 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 -2.3 -0.7 -0.7 4.9 85.5 83.9 -7.7 -5.6 -3.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 0.0 1.2 -0.5 4.8 84.5 82.5 -4.4 -2.7 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 -1.2 -0.2 -2.5 4.4 83.1 80.8 -5.1 -3.6 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 0.8 1.9 2.0 4.4 83.3 81.2 -3.9 -2.1 -0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 -5.6 -4.5 -1.9 4.5 83.0 80.1 -9.3 -7.8 -6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 0.7 1.7 0.4 4.7 83.6 81.5 -3.7 -2.0 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 0.3 1.4 -1.0 4.7 83.9 81.2 -3.5 -2.0 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 0.2 1.2 -0.9 4.7 83.4 81.5 -4.0 -2.4 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 -0.9 0.0 -1.1 4.5 82.8 80.7 -4.9 -3.3 -1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 -0.4 0.8 -1.4 4.5 83.4 81.1 -4.4 -2.8 -1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 0.9 1.9 0.2 4.5 83.6 80.9 -2.9 -1.4 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 0.7 1.6 -0.2 4.6 84.1 83.1 -3.8 -2.1 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 0.7 1.6 -1.2 4.7 83.5 81.7 -3.3 -1.8 -0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 0.3 1.3 2.0 4.3 82.1 80.0 -4.0 -2.3 -0.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 -2.0 -0.8 -1.5 4.7 84.6 81.0 -5.5 -4.1 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 0.7 1.8 1.8 4.2 83.0 81.0 -4.2 -2.3 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 -4.7 -3.4 -3.5 4.1 82.5 77.8 -9.2 -7.3 -5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 0.7 1.7 1.4 4.7 83.7 81.8 -3.9 -2.2 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 0.2 1.3 1.9 4.3 82.3 80.1 -4.2 -2.5 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 0.1 1.0 1.4 4.3 83.0 81.1 -4.1 -2.5 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 0.0 1.1 0.0 4.6 84.0 81.4 -3.9 -2.4 -0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 0.5 1.7 0.3 4.7 85.4 83.5 -3.7 -2.1 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 -0.3 0.5 -1.4 4.1 81.6 79.5 -3.9 -2.5 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 1.4 2.8 1.4 4.7 84.5 82.4 -3.9 -1.9 0.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 -0.3 0.7 -0.5 4.8 84.1 82.8 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 -2.0 -0.7 -2.2 4.4 84.0 79.7 -6.1 -4.4 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 1.1 2.2 2.0 4.3 83.5 81.5 -3.7 -1.9 -0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------