***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 8.5 9.2 8.4 2.4 73.4 67.7 4.6 6.5 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 7.7 8.4 8.4 2.5 73.3 68.5 3.5 5.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 8.6 9.2 8.6 2.4 72.7 67.2 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 1.5 2.4 6.5 2.6 74.1 67.9 -2.4 -0.5 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 8.6 9.1 6.9 2.4 72.4 66.3 4.2 6.3 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 7.5 7.7 5.4 2.0 70.0 64.2 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 7.3 8.0 8.3 2.4 73.3 68.4 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -1.9 -0.7 5.6 1.7 67.8 62.8 -4.1 -2.4 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 8.8 9.2 7.5 2.2 71.2 65.3 4.3 6.4 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 8.5 8.7 6.5 2.0 69.1 63.8 4.3 6.3 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 8.8 9.4 6.6 2.2 71.6 65.6 4.4 6.6 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 8.2 8.5 6.3 1.9 69.9 64.3 3.9 6.0 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 8.6 9.0 5.9 1.9 70.0 64.3 4.4 6.5 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 9.1 9.3 7.7 2.2 69.9 64.7 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 7.9 8.7 6.8 2.7 75.2 69.4 3.6 5.6 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 9.3 9.8 6.3 2.2 71.8 65.7 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 7.1 7.7 8.1 2.3 72.2 67.6 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.6 7.9 6.1 1.8 67.2 62.3 3.8 5.8 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 8.0 8.8 8.7 2.6 73.3 68.3 3.4 5.6 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 3.1 3.8 3.7 1.2 62.8 59.3 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 8.7 9.2 8.1 2.4 72.2 66.3 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 7.8 8.4 8.3 2.4 72.2 67.5 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 8.2 8.9 8.7 2.5 72.9 67.6 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 8.7 9.0 7.6 2.1 69.7 64.4 4.3 6.4 8.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 7.5 8.2 6.8 2.4 73.5 67.3 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 8.3 8.5 5.6 1.8 70.1 64.4 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 8.0 8.8 7.6 2.4 73.5 67.6 3.8 5.8 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 8.4 9.3 6.8 2.7 74.2 68.2 4.1 6.2 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.0 4.1 5.1 1.6 65.4 61.1 0.0 2.2 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 7.6 8.3 8.5 2.5 73.4 68.4 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------