***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 10.9 11.1 9.0 2.0 68.7 65.2 6.2 8.5 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 9.8 10.2 9.2 2.1 69.6 66.0 5.0 7.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 11.0 11.2 9.2 2.0 68.9 65.1 6.1 8.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 4.2 4.4 7.1 2.1 69.4 65.5 -0.4 1.8 3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 11.0 11.0 7.4 1.9 67.9 64.0 6.2 8.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 8.5 9.7 5.8 1.6 65.2 61.8 5.6 7.8 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 9.4 9.8 9.0 2.0 69.3 65.9 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 1.1 1.1 6.3 1.8 67.1 63.1 -2.3 -0.6 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 11.4 11.4 8.1 1.9 67.3 63.5 6.7 9.0 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 11.4 11.3 7.1 1.8 67.1 63.2 6.7 9.0 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.3 7.2 1.8 67.0 63.3 6.7 9.0 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.2 10.5 7.0 1.7 66.5 62.8 6.3 8.4 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 9.6 10.8 6.3 1.5 64.8 61.4 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 11.8 12.2 8.5 2.2 69.9 65.4 6.6 9.2 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 10.2 10.6 7.5 2.2 70.8 66.9 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.2 11.5 6.8 1.7 66.2 62.7 7.1 9.4 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 46 54 100 9.0 9.4 8.9 2.0 69.2 65.7 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 11.0 11.0 6.8 1.9 67.9 63.7 6.5 8.7 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 10.1 10.5 9.4 2.2 69.9 66.0 5.1 7.5 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 4.9 6.3 4.6 1.8 67.5 63.3 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 11.3 11.3 8.7 1.9 67.9 64.1 6.5 8.8 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 10.0 10.5 9.2 2.1 69.9 66.0 5.2 7.6 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 10.8 11.1 9.5 2.2 70.2 66.0 5.7 8.2 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 11.4 11.5 8.2 2.1 68.8 64.5 6.7 9.0 11.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 10.0 10.3 7.4 2.0 69.1 65.2 5.5 7.7 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 9.1 10.2 6.1 1.4 64.8 61.4 6.5 8.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 10.3 10.6 8.2 2.0 69.0 65.4 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 11.1 11.3 7.4 2.1 69.2 65.4 5.8 8.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 7.0 7.2 5.9 2.0 68.5 64.1 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 9.7 10.1 9.2 2.1 69.4 65.9 5.0 7.4 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------