***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 9.3 10.9 9.0 3.6 87.3 84.5 4.9 6.6 8.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 8.9 10.5 9.1 3.7 87.0 84.6 4.3 6.0 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 9.6 11.2 9.3 3.7 86.8 84.1 5.2 6.9 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 5 95 100 3.0 4.2 7.2 3.9 86.7 84.3 -1.0 0.5 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 9.4 10.8 7.7 3.7 86.2 83.5 5.3 6.8 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 8.1 9.3 6.3 3.4 85.5 82.5 4.7 6.0 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 8.4 10.1 8.9 3.6 87.1 84.6 3.8 5.6 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 0.3 1.2 6.5 3.2 84.7 81.7 -2.5 -1.4 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 9.8 11.2 8.4 3.6 85.9 83.1 5.7 7.3 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 9.4 10.7 7.4 3.4 85.3 82.3 5.6 7.1 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 9.6 11.0 7.5 3.5 86.3 83.4 5.6 7.2 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 9.0 10.2 7.2 3.3 85.5 82.5 5.4 6.8 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 9.2 10.5 6.9 3.3 85.6 82.4 5.6 7.1 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 10.3 11.9 8.7 3.7 86.3 83.4 5.8 7.5 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 9.0 10.5 7.8 4.1 87.2 85.1 4.5 6.2 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 9.8 11.1 7.2 3.5 86.2 83.3 6.0 7.5 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 8.3 9.7 8.8 3.5 86.3 84.0 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 8.8 10.0 7.0 3.3 85.1 81.8 5.1 6.6 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 9.1 10.8 9.3 3.8 87.0 84.5 4.3 6.1 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 4.9 5.8 4.8 2.9 82.9 79.5 1.7 3.0 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 9.7 11.1 8.9 3.7 86.5 83.8 5.5 7.1 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 9.2 10.8 9.0 3.6 86.5 84.1 4.5 6.3 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 9.4 11.1 9.4 3.8 86.9 84.3 4.7 6.5 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 9.9 11.3 8.5 3.6 86.1 83.0 5.8 7.4 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 8.6 10.0 7.6 3.7 87.4 84.5 4.5 6.0 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 8.6 9.7 6.3 3.0 84.6 81.4 5.4 6.7 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 9.0 10.6 8.3 3.6 87.5 84.6 4.8 6.4 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 9.9 11.5 7.7 4.0 86.7 84.3 5.1 6.9 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 5.3 6.4 6.1 3.1 84.4 81.0 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 8.7 10.3 9.2 3.7 87.2 84.7 4.2 5.9 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------