***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 3.3 4.4 11.2 113.6 67.5 60.9 1.5 2.7 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 4.5 5.0 12.6 143.1 76.0 66.7 1.3 2.3 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 3.7 4.8 10.6 105.4 64.6 58.5 1.3 2.8 5.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.2 6.5 8.8 70.6 48.9 44.5 4.0 6.7 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 6.3 5.3 9.3 72.9 49.8 45.9 3.2 5.3 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.4 4.3 7.6 64.1 46.6 42.0 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 5.2 5.7 12.3 142.3 75.9 65.7 1.3 2.5 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 11.6 12.1 11.8 92.8 59.1 53.4 5.4 9.4 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 3.8 3.3 9.5 76.5 52.2 48.5 1.7 3.1 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 5.4 5.2 11.1 84.1 55.3 50.8 2.6 4.5 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 5.3 4.7 9.2 77.6 53.1 48.4 2.3 4.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 6.0 5.7 9.6 84.3 55.8 50.6 2.5 4.8 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 6.9 5.2 8.9 70.5 48.3 44.7 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 4.8 6.4 13.2 106.5 65.2 60.3 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.3 4.4 7.2 67.3 50.9 44.5 1.9 4.3 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 5.0 3.9 8.0 67.6 47.8 43.8 2.4 4.1 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 6.1 7.2 12.8 153.9 78.4 68.7 1.3 2.7 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 5.4 5.7 12.8 91.8 58.3 53.5 2.5 4.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 5.2 5.7 12.2 132.4 73.2 65.0 1.3 2.6 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.4 8.0 17.7 110.9 66.0 59.1 2.6 4.9 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 4.0 4.0 9.8 85.7 56.2 51.9 1.9 3.3 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 5.7 6.7 13.7 153.4 78.2 69.8 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 3.1 4.7 11.7 115.3 68.4 61.7 1.2 2.5 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 5.6 6.4 11.5 94.1 60.1 55.6 2.5 4.7 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 4.5 4.7 11.5 91.4 57.6 52.8 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.2 4.5 8.8 70.4 49.9 45.0 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 4.2 5.3 12.4 110.5 65.7 59.4 1.9 3.4 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.9 3.2 7.1 61.7 46.2 41.2 1.9 3.7 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 9.6 11.2 15.0 103.5 63.2 57.2 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 4.1 4.4 12.1 132.9 73.4 64.5 1.3 2.3 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------