***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.4 9.2 11.7 107.0 65.5 55.2 2.9 5.6 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.3 9.5 11.5 106.4 65.3 54.1 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 9.5 12.6 12.1 106.2 65.0 55.7 3.4 7.2 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 10.7 12.9 12.4 98.5 62.6 54.4 4.4 8.5 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 11.3 15.5 13.3 110.7 66.4 58.1 4.6 9.0 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 8.6 11.4 14.7 113.4 67.5 59.7 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 6.1 8.2 11.5 108.8 66.2 55.0 2.4 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 16.3 21.3 15.5 117.4 68.7 60.1 8.6 13.7 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 9.5 14.1 14.1 115.8 68.1 60.2 3.7 7.5 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 12.5 17.7 15.4 116.5 68.3 60.3 5.2 10.0 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 10.0 13.8 12.7 113.4 67.3 58.5 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 13.5 12.7 13.2 116.6 68.5 59.8 3.3 6.8 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 14.8 14.7 14.1 118.7 69.3 61.7 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 12.4 16.7 16.2 112.5 67.0 58.4 5.9 10.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.2 10.8 85.1 58.7 50.4 3.3 6.8 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.5 11.3 12.7 111.6 66.8 58.8 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.7 10.2 11.8 115.9 68.5 56.3 3.3 5.9 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.4 14.3 17.5 116.7 68.1 60.5 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.5 10.8 11.8 105.4 64.8 54.0 3.0 6.4 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 14.6 15.0 22.2 124.0 70.8 62.1 3.8 7.5 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 10.1 14.0 12.9 112.2 67.0 58.1 3.7 7.7 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.0 10.2 12.2 111.4 67.1 55.8 3.5 6.3 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 7.6 10.3 12.8 107.2 65.3 55.0 3.0 6.0 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 11.1 14.7 15.2 111.1 66.3 58.2 4.8 9.0 14.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 10.4 14.5 13.7 110.6 66.5 56.5 3.6 7.8 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 9.9 9.0 13.8 111.9 67.3 59.9 2.7 5.1 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.0 13.3 13.1 110.2 66.5 56.2 3.9 7.7 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.5 10.3 11.5 92.0 60.7 52.9 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 16.8 22.7 19.6 120.0 69.3 61.0 8.1 13.7 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 7.2 9.3 11.5 104.1 64.5 53.9 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------