***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.4 11.2 12.0 115.8 69.0 55.8 3.6 6.4 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.5 8.6 11.3 114.9 68.4 53.5 2.2 4.5 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.8 11.7 11.8 113.8 68.4 57.0 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.7 13.8 12.7 119.8 70.3 58.5 6.2 9.1 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.9 14.5 12.8 119.3 69.8 59.0 5.6 9.0 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.6 10.0 13.0 115.7 68.4 58.1 3.8 6.3 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.6 8.8 11.4 118.7 69.5 53.0 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 22.0 22.9 15.0 122.8 70.7 60.1 11.6 16.0 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 11.8 11.7 13.1 116.7 68.9 58.9 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.6 14.6 14.6 119.1 69.7 59.8 5.0 8.6 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.1 12.0 12.2 118.6 69.7 58.2 4.7 7.4 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.2 15.0 12.6 121.8 70.5 59.1 5.6 9.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.5 13.7 12.8 118.6 69.4 58.8 5.3 8.6 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 10.6 13.7 15.0 111.9 67.4 58.0 5.1 8.6 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.3 11.8 11.6 116.8 69.7 55.5 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.5 11.2 11.8 118.1 69.6 58.1 4.3 6.9 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.6 10.3 11.6 125.4 71.6 54.3 2.2 4.7 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.8 15.0 16.6 117.4 69.1 60.2 4.8 8.6 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.9 8.9 11.2 111.7 67.7 54.5 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.5 19.5 20.5 123.3 71.1 61.2 6.4 11.0 16.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.6 12.0 12.4 118.5 69.5 58.4 3.5 6.5 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.1 10.1 11.7 121.1 70.5 56.1 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.4 8.2 11.6 108.3 66.8 55.8 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.3 13.4 14.3 112.1 67.4 58.2 4.6 8.2 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.8 11.9 13.7 118.0 69.3 57.0 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 12.4 12.6 13.5 124.9 71.5 61.6 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.8 10.6 13.3 116.4 68.8 55.4 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.9 12.7 11.7 117.0 69.6 56.8 2.9 6.2 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 19.4 26.0 18.3 119.1 69.7 60.5 10.8 16.6 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.8 9.1 11.4 113.0 67.9 53.8 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------