***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 28.6 31.8 43.4 107.1 62.3 56.4 16.5 24.6 34.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 26.6 31.5 43.4 112.3 65.4 58.7 15.6 23.0 31.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 37.2 39.7 43.5 104.4 60.9 55.5 21.6 32.0 44.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 44.6 41.3 43.7 92.5 53.2 49.0 28.5 39.2 51.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 43.4 42.2 45.9 98.1 56.3 51.4 28.1 38.2 49.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 36.9 36.6 46.6 98.0 56.0 52.0 26.2 33.7 42.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 25.6 30.6 43.2 114.2 66.4 59.3 15.3 22.3 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 65.1 67.9 53.4 106.1 61.5 56.1 49.1 59.9 71.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 35.0 35.4 47.5 100.8 57.9 52.9 22.4 30.8 40.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 44.2 45.3 52.7 103.5 59.6 54.4 30.5 39.8 49.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 38.3 38.1 43.9 100.3 57.6 52.5 25.3 33.6 43.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 43.0 44.2 44.8 103.6 59.9 54.8 29.3 38.3 48.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 44.3 44.5 46.2 100.9 57.8 53.5 30.2 39.6 50.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 44.6 47.5 55.6 105.3 61.1 56.3 30.6 40.4 51.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 38.9 32.7 37.7 85.4 50.8 46.9 19.4 31.8 47.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 35.9 34.5 42.3 97.2 55.6 51.0 23.7 31.6 40.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 29.1 36.4 43.7 118.2 68.4 60.6 17.2 25.2 34.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 40.0 42.6 59.9 105.3 61.0 55.6 25.8 35.4 46.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 30.0 33.7 43.4 108.7 63.5 57.6 18.2 26.2 35.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 45.6 52.0 74.6 112.1 65.4 59.1 30.7 41.0 52.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 36.9 37.7 44.7 102.0 59.0 53.8 21.8 31.6 43.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 28.5 34.6 45.2 115.2 66.9 60.2 17.2 24.9 34.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 27.8 29.9 44.9 104.8 61.3 56.2 17.1 24.2 32.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 42.7 44.4 52.4 103.0 59.6 54.7 29.5 38.6 48.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 39.0 40.0 49.2 102.1 58.9 53.6 22.3 33.2 46.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 36.6 37.1 45.6 99.5 57.4 53.8 25.4 33.2 42.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 33.2 36.9 48.4 107.4 62.4 56.4 19.3 28.7 39.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 37.6 32.2 39.3 87.2 50.8 46.8 21.2 31.6 44.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 67.4 72.8 66.6 109.3 63.5 57.4 49.8 62.0 75.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 27.9 32.1 43.1 109.6 63.9 57.7 16.1 24.0 33.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------