***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 0.9 1.9 2.5 4.8 83.0 82.1 -4.8 -2.7 -0.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.8 79.4 78.4 -5.2 -3.2 -1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 2.4 3.0 2.3 4.4 81.1 80.2 -2.4 -0.6 1.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 -3.2 -2.0 0.5 5.0 84.6 83.5 -8.2 -6.3 -4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 -0.8 0.3 1.6 5.2 85.6 84.7 -5.1 -3.5 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 -1.9 -0.9 -1.2 4.4 83.8 83.0 -6.1 -4.5 -3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.9 79.6 78.6 -5.0 -3.0 -1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 -5.4 -4.5 -1.0 4.5 83.2 82.5 -10.0 -8.3 -6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 0.6 1.2 0.7 4.4 82.1 81.3 -3.9 -2.3 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 -0.4 0.3 -0.5 4.5 83.0 82.2 -4.3 -2.8 -1.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 -0.8 0.1 0.8 4.9 84.2 83.5 -4.8 -3.3 -1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 -1.8 -1.0 0.5 5.0 84.7 83.9 -5.6 -4.2 -2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 -0.9 -0.1 0.3 4.7 83.7 83.0 -5.3 -3.7 -2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 0.6 1.4 0.6 4.5 82.1 80.9 -3.4 -1.9 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 -0.1 0.7 1.3 4.5 82.9 81.8 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 0.0 0.9 0.6 5.1 85.1 84.2 -4.0 -2.5 -1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 -0.2 0.2 1.8 3.7 79.1 78.1 -4.9 -3.1 -1.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 -2.6 -1.9 -0.5 4.8 84.0 83.0 -6.4 -5.0 -3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.9 79.7 78.6 -4.9 -3.0 -1.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 -5.1 -4.2 -1.5 4.6 83.4 82.8 -10.5 -8.5 -6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.7 82.3 81.5 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 -0.1 0.5 1.8 3.6 79.8 78.7 -5.1 -3.2 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 -0.4 0.2 1.3 4.0 80.5 79.4 -4.5 -2.9 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 -0.5 0.1 0.7 4.4 81.8 80.7 -4.5 -3.0 -1.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 -0.3 0.7 2.3 5.0 84.8 83.9 -4.8 -3.2 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -0.8 0.6 0.6 5.2 87.6 87.1 -5.2 -3.6 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 0.9 2.0 2.6 4.9 84.0 83.1 -5.0 -2.8 -0.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 -1.4 -0.6 0.9 5.0 83.8 82.7 -5.6 -4.0 -2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 -2.2 -1.4 -1.6 4.5 82.5 81.5 -6.9 -5.1 -3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 0.6 1.1 2.0 4.1 80.2 79.2 -4.8 -2.8 -0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------