***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 0.6 55.8 55.5 -3.3 -1.5 0.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 -1.5 -2.1 -1.3 0.2 51.7 52.7 -4.1 -2.3 -0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 0.7 0.7 -0.5 0.7 57.1 56.3 -1.7 0.0 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -4.8 -4.7 -3.3 0.8 58.1 57.0 -7.7 -5.6 -3.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 -0.8 -1.6 -2.0 1.2 61.1 59.4 -4.4 -2.7 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 -1.6 -1.6 -3.1 2.3 71.1 68.0 -5.1 -3.6 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 -1.3 -2.0 -1.3 0.1 51.0 52.3 -3.9 -2.1 -0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 -5.8 -6.3 -3.1 1.9 67.4 64.9 -9.3 -7.8 -6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 0.0 -0.7 -1.7 1.4 63.3 60.8 -3.7 -2.0 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 -0.1 -0.6 -2.8 1.7 65.7 63.0 -3.5 -2.0 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 -0.3 -0.8 -2.0 1.8 66.1 63.4 -4.0 -2.4 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 -1.2 -1.5 -2.1 2.2 69.3 66.2 -4.9 -3.3 -1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 -0.6 -0.7 -2.1 2.4 71.3 68.3 -4.4 -2.8 -1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 0.3 -0.3 -1.9 1.4 62.3 60.2 -2.9 -1.4 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 -0.3 -1.0 -1.8 1.2 61.7 59.8 -3.8 -2.1 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 0.2 -0.2 -2.3 2.0 67.7 65.0 -3.3 -1.8 -0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 -1.5 -2.5 -1.6 -0.2 48.3 50.6 -4.0 -2.3 -0.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 -2.3 -2.7 -3.0 1.8 66.8 63.9 -5.5 -4.1 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 -1.5 -1.9 -1.1 0.4 53.9 54.1 -4.2 -2.3 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 -5.0 -5.7 -4.0 1.6 65.0 63.7 -9.2 -7.3 -5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 1.0 59.6 58.1 -3.9 -2.2 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 -4.6 -2.4 -1.4 0.1 50.8 52.0 -4.2 -2.5 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 -1.8 -1.8 -1.0 0.8 57.6 56.8 -4.1 -2.5 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 -0.6 -1.1 -1.8 1.5 64.0 61.3 -3.9 -2.4 -0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 -1.4 -1.3 -1.3 0.9 58.5 57.3 -3.7 -2.1 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 -0.5 -0.2 -1.7 2.8 75.1 71.5 -3.9 -2.5 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 -1.0 -1.1 -0.8 0.7 56.8 56.1 -3.9 -1.9 0.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -2.1 -2.7 1.2 60.8 59.2 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 -2.3 -2.7 -3.4 2.0 68.2 65.3 -6.1 -4.4 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 -1.1 -1.5 -1.0 0.3 53.3 53.8 -3.7 -1.9 -0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------