***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 -2.6 -0.5 -0.6 0.1 51.2 52.3 -2.3 -0.6 1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 -3.9 -1.8 -0.8 0.0 49.6 51.7 -3.6 -1.7 0.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 -1.4 0.9 -0.5 0.1 51.4 52.3 -0.9 0.7 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -7.3 -4.8 -3.5 0.0 49.9 51.4 -6.7 -4.8 -3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 -3.9 -1.7 -2.8 0.2 52.5 53.3 -3.5 -1.9 -0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 -0.8 -1.7 -4.3 0.9 59.6 58.3 -4.3 -2.6 -1.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 -3.5 -1.5 -0.8 -0.1 48.9 51.4 -3.2 -1.4 0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -10.1 -7.0 -4.1 0.6 56.9 56.8 -9.6 -7.7 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 -3.0 -0.7 -2.3 0.3 53.7 54.1 -2.7 -1.0 0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 -3.1 -0.6 -3.6 0.6 56.0 55.8 -2.6 -1.1 0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 -3.3 -0.9 -3.1 0.5 55.3 55.6 -3.0 -1.4 0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 -4.3 -1.7 -3.4 0.7 57.3 57.3 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 0.3 -0.6 -3.6 0.9 60.1 58.7 -3.5 -1.7 0.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 -2.6 -0.4 -2.5 0.3 53.3 53.5 -2.2 -0.7 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 -3.2 -1.3 -2.6 0.0 49.7 51.1 -2.8 -1.2 0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 -2.4 0.0 -3.5 0.6 56.6 56.4 -2.2 -0.6 0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 -3.9 -2.0 -1.0 -0.3 46.9 50.5 -3.5 -1.6 0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 -5.4 -2.8 -4.1 0.7 57.1 56.3 -4.9 -3.4 -2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 -3.7 -1.5 -0.8 0.0 50.5 52.0 -3.3 -1.5 0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 -4.0 -5.6 -5.2 0.8 59.1 57.8 -9.4 -6.9 -4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 -3.4 -1.0 -1.3 0.2 52.0 52.7 -2.8 -1.2 0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 -4.0 -2.1 -1.1 -0.1 48.3 51.0 -3.7 -1.9 -0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -3.7 -1.7 -0.9 0.1 51.4 52.3 -3.4 -1.8 -0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 -3.3 -1.1 -2.7 0.4 54.0 54.2 -2.9 -1.5 -0.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 -3.4 -1.4 -2.0 0.1 50.6 52.0 -3.1 -1.5 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 0.4 -0.6 -3.7 0.9 60.2 59.1 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 -0.2 -0.9 -1.1 0.1 51.1 52.5 -3.0 -1.1 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -4.8 -2.7 -3.3 0.1 50.7 51.9 -4.3 -2.8 -1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 -1.9 -3.1 -4.3 0.8 58.8 57.4 -5.8 -4.0 -2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 -3.4 -1.2 -0.7 0.0 50.4 52.0 -3.0 -1.2 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------