***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 9.1 11.2 10.7 5.8 86.7 85.4 2.7 5.1 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 9.0 10.2 10.2 4.8 83.3 81.9 2.9 5.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 10.2 12.2 11.5 6.2 86.8 85.6 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 3.2 5.3 8.7 6.7 88.2 86.7 -2.1 -0.1 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 9.3 11.3 10.3 6.3 87.9 86.7 3.7 5.8 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 8.0 10.2 9.6 6.5 89.5 88.2 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 8.5 9.6 9.7 4.5 82.2 80.7 2.4 4.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 1.7 3.3 9.4 6.1 87.4 86.4 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 10.3 12.5 11.3 6.3 87.7 86.5 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 9.8 11.6 10.3 6.2 86.9 85.8 4.2 6.2 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 9.7 11.9 11.3 6.7 88.7 87.5 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 9.6 11.8 10.4 6.5 89.2 88.1 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 9.4 11.9 11.4 6.8 90.2 89.1 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 11.2 13.2 11.8 6.2 86.9 85.5 4.9 7.3 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 9.0 10.6 9.9 6.1 86.0 84.4 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 9.7 12.0 10.8 6.8 89.4 88.1 4.2 6.2 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 8.3 9.0 9.3 4.0 80.2 78.7 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 8.3 10.0 9.9 6.4 88.0 86.9 3.6 5.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 9.4 10.9 10.6 5.2 84.4 83.0 2.9 5.4 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 5.4 6.7 7.5 5.5 86.2 85.5 0.5 2.3 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 9.9 11.9 11.8 6.2 87.5 86.2 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 9.5 10.6 9.9 4.3 81.9 80.4 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 9.7 11.2 11.0 5.6 85.4 84.1 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 10.9 13.2 11.7 6.4 87.8 86.5 4.6 7.0 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 8.0 10.0 10.4 6.2 88.3 86.9 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 8.8 11.4 9.7 6.3 91.6 90.6 3.7 5.5 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 8.9 10.9 10.3 5.6 86.8 85.4 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 10.1 11.9 9.6 6.5 86.9 85.4 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 6.1 8.1 9.3 6.4 88.7 87.6 0.9 2.8 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 8.8 10.4 10.4 5.2 84.7 83.4 2.6 5.0 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------