***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.9 4.9 5.0 -1.5 36.0 39.9 4.6 6.5 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.9 3.5 4.6 -1.9 33.5 38.4 3.5 5.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.5 4.7 5.4 -1.5 37.0 40.6 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -3.1 -1.5 2.8 -1.1 40.4 42.6 -2.4 -0.5 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.6 5.2 4.1 -1.0 40.7 43.0 4.2 6.3 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.2 4.7 3.2 -0.7 43.5 45.5 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.4 3.0 4.5 -1.9 32.4 37.6 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -4.5 -3.1 3.7 -0.7 43.1 45.0 -4.1 -2.4 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.6 5.2 4.7 -1.1 40.2 42.7 4.3 6.4 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.7 5.4 4.1 -0.9 42.1 44.1 4.3 6.3 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.8 5.6 4.3 -0.9 41.9 44.2 4.4 6.6 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.3 5.1 4.3 -0.8 42.6 44.9 3.9 6.0 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.0 5.7 3.8 -0.7 43.5 46.0 4.4 6.5 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 3.5 5.2 4.8 -1.3 39.1 42.1 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.8 4.4 3.1 -1.2 39.2 41.8 3.6 5.6 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.2 5.9 3.9 -0.9 42.1 44.6 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.6 3.0 4.4 -2.0 31.4 37.0 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.3 5.0 4.1 -0.8 43.0 44.9 3.8 5.8 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.7 3.6 4.9 -1.7 34.9 39.3 3.4 5.6 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 0.1 1.7 2.1 -0.7 43.0 45.1 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.6 5.0 5.1 -1.2 38.9 41.7 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.8 3.5 4.7 -1.9 33.2 38.4 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.0 4.0 5.4 -1.6 36.3 40.3 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.6 5.2 4.9 -1.1 40.5 43.1 4.3 6.4 8.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.8 4.1 3.6 -1.3 37.7 40.8 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.6 5.4 3.8 -0.5 44.3 46.8 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.0 4.1 4.4 -1.5 35.5 39.6 3.8 5.8 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.3 5.0 3.0 -1.1 40.3 42.7 4.1 6.2 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -0.5 1.4 3.6 -0.6 44.0 45.7 0.0 2.2 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.7 3.5 4.7 -1.8 34.3 38.9 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------