***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 7.2 7.8 7.1 1.0 61.9 59.4 4.9 6.6 8.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.6 6.8 0.5 55.7 55.1 4.3 6.0 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.5 8.1 7.6 1.1 62.2 59.6 5.2 6.9 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 2.0 1.9 4.8 1.5 66.4 62.6 -1.0 0.5 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 8.6 8.4 6.3 1.4 66.8 62.7 5.3 6.8 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 7.7 8.0 5.6 1.9 73.8 67.6 4.7 6.0 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.1 6.6 0.4 54.8 54.5 3.8 5.6 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -0.1 0.0 5.8 1.6 70.5 65.7 -2.5 -1.4 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.8 7.1 1.4 66.3 62.2 5.7 7.3 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 8.8 8.8 6.3 1.5 68.2 63.8 5.6 7.1 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 9.0 9.0 6.9 1.7 69.7 65.0 5.6 7.2 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 8.5 8.7 6.6 1.8 72.0 66.8 5.4 6.8 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 8.9 9.2 6.7 2.0 74.7 68.8 5.6 7.1 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.9 7.3 1.2 63.9 60.5 5.8 7.5 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.8 7.5 5.5 1.2 63.3 60.6 4.5 6.2 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 9.3 9.4 6.4 1.7 71.3 66.2 6.0 7.5 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.8 6.4 0.1 51.6 52.2 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 8.2 8.3 6.2 1.6 69.7 65.0 5.1 6.6 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.9 7.1 0.6 57.5 56.4 4.3 6.1 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 4.5 4.6 4.2 1.5 70.4 65.8 1.7 3.0 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.7 8.4 7.5 1.2 64.3 60.8 5.5 7.1 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.9 6.6 6.7 0.2 53.1 53.1 4.5 6.3 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.1 7.5 7.5 0.8 59.8 57.8 4.7 6.5 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.9 7.3 1.4 66.2 62.3 5.8 7.4 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.6 7.3 6.1 1.2 64.4 61.0 4.5 6.0 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 8.3 8.8 6.1 1.9 76.4 70.4 5.4 6.7 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.5 6.7 0.9 61.8 59.2 4.8 6.4 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 8.9 8.6 5.3 1.4 65.7 62.1 5.1 6.9 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 4.9 5.0 5.7 1.7 71.9 66.7 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.7 6.9 0.7 58.0 56.7 4.2 5.9 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------