***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 0.9 1.2 4.3 36.2 28.2 23.1 1.5 2.7 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 0.9 1.2 4.1 40.6 31.1 24.9 1.3 2.3 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 0.8 0.8 3.7 31.3 24.8 20.9 1.3 2.8 5.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 3.0 3.1 4.6 30.0 26.8 24.4 4.0 6.7 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 2.1 2.0 3.8 26.7 21.0 19.4 3.2 5.3 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 2.1 1.8 4.1 31.8 25.8 23.9 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 1.0 1.3 4.5 45.3 33.6 26.7 1.3 2.5 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 4.1 3.8 4.7 29.8 23.8 22.0 5.4 9.4 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 1.2 1.0 3.8 28.8 21.8 20.2 1.7 3.1 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 1.9 1.6 4.4 28.8 22.1 20.5 2.6 4.5 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 1.7 1.6 4.6 32.2 25.6 23.0 2.3 4.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 1.9 1.8 4.5 32.6 26.2 23.5 2.5 4.8 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 2.5 2.2 4.8 33.7 27.4 24.7 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 1.3 1.2 4.9 33.0 25.7 21.8 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.8 1.9 4.6 34.3 33.3 29.4 1.9 4.3 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 1.9 1.9 4.6 33.6 27.6 24.4 2.4 4.1 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 1.1 1.5 4.4 46.8 35.4 28.3 1.3 2.7 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 1.6 1.5 4.6 28.6 21.6 19.7 2.5 4.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 0.9 1.1 4.0 37.0 28.6 23.0 1.3 2.6 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 1.7 1.5 5.1 26.4 22.1 20.3 2.6 4.9 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 1.5 1.2 3.6 28.5 22.2 20.7 1.9 3.3 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 1.2 1.5 4.3 41.7 32.8 27.0 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 0.8 0.9 4.1 35.2 27.3 21.6 1.2 2.5 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 83 17 0 100 1.6 1.6 4.3 30.2 23.0 20.3 2.5 4.7 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 1.4 1.2 4.3 30.3 22.8 20.4 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 1.8 1.4 4.3 30.5 25.8 23.4 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 1.3 1.5 4.6 36.9 27.8 22.9 1.9 3.4 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 1.7 1.8 4.6 33.6 30.6 27.1 1.9 3.7 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 83 17 0 100 3.0 2.9 4.7 27.5 21.8 19.7 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 0.9 1.2 4.2 40.1 31.0 24.3 1.3 2.3 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------