***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 10.8 12.6 14.1 139.3 75.3 62.5 2.9 5.6 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 11.8 13.0 12.7 135.9 74.3 60.6 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 15.2 18.1 14.3 139.4 75.3 62.2 3.4 7.2 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 16.3 18.1 17.1 132.1 73.3 60.7 4.4 8.5 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.9 17.6 14.5 122.7 70.4 57.5 4.6 9.0 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.1 12.0 14.5 120.2 69.6 57.1 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 9.8 10.6 12.2 135.5 74.2 60.5 2.4 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 22.2 21.9 15.7 121.2 69.7 57.8 8.6 13.7 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.9 14.6 14.4 120.1 69.4 56.5 3.7 7.5 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.7 18.2 14.9 119.2 69.1 56.7 5.2 10.0 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.4 15.4 14.7 123.2 70.5 57.9 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.5 13.7 14.7 124.0 70.7 58.5 3.3 6.8 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.8 14.1 14.5 115.9 68.0 56.3 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.4 18.5 16.2 124.2 70.8 58.1 5.9 10.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 13.6 16.3 18.3 141.1 75.6 61.7 3.3 6.8 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.9 12.2 14.2 118.9 69.1 56.6 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.8 11.3 11.9 128.8 72.3 58.3 3.3 5.9 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.9 15.0 113.9 67.2 55.6 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 13.8 15.5 13.4 138.4 75.0 61.7 3.0 6.4 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.3 13.5 20.0 115.6 67.5 56.1 3.8 7.5 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 16.1 17.0 14.7 130.5 72.7 60.2 3.7 7.7 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 11.2 12.1 13.1 132.2 73.3 60.0 3.5 6.3 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 12.7 14.4 14.4 139.6 75.3 62.4 3.0 6.0 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.8 16.3 14.9 121.0 69.6 57.5 4.8 9.0 14.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 17.6 18.7 15.7 131.9 73.2 60.7 3.6 7.8 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 10.1 9.5 15.2 118.5 69.0 57.8 2.7 5.1 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 15.2 17.1 14.6 136.1 74.4 62.2 3.9 7.7 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 14.3 16.0 16.7 133.4 73.5 60.2 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.2 21.8 16.6 115.2 67.6 56.6 8.1 13.7 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 12.1 13.4 13.1 139.4 75.2 61.8 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------