***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 11.6 11.9 12.6 124.7 71.1 60.7 3.6 6.4 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.4 8.8 10.7 118.4 69.1 57.6 2.2 4.5 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 12.7 11.8 12.0 117.1 68.7 59.0 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.2 13.1 13.9 114.2 67.8 56.1 6.2 9.1 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.1 13.6 13.8 113.2 67.4 56.2 5.6 9.0 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.9 8.8 12.7 102.4 63.3 52.5 3.8 6.3 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.3 9.1 11.0 122.6 70.5 57.7 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 11.2 20.8 14.5 107.6 65.2 54.0 11.6 16.0 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.9 11.2 14.3 113.9 67.5 56.6 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.2 13.3 14.8 110.1 65.9 55.1 5.0 8.6 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.6 11.1 13.3 110.2 66.2 54.9 4.7 7.4 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.6 13.1 12.8 106.9 65.1 53.7 5.6 9.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.7 12.0 12.9 104.1 63.9 53.2 5.3 8.6 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 14.7 12.7 14.5 106.8 64.7 56.3 5.1 8.6 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.3 12.0 14.3 119.4 69.9 56.6 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.4 10.0 12.6 105.6 64.6 53.4 4.3 6.9 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.8 10.1 10.9 124.8 71.1 57.0 2.2 4.7 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.2 13.0 15.0 105.8 64.1 53.8 4.8 8.6 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.8 9.1 10.7 115.2 68.0 57.6 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.8 15.3 18.4 100.8 62.4 51.8 6.4 11.0 16.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 12.4 11.9 13.5 118.5 69.1 58.6 3.5 6.5 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.2 10.0 11.0 121.7 70.1 57.9 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 6.3 8.1 11.2 110.0 66.1 57.0 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 14.6 12.6 13.9 109.0 65.5 55.9 4.6 8.2 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 12.2 12.6 14.6 124.7 71.1 60.2 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.9 13.1 108.5 66.0 54.3 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 11.1 11.6 13.6 127.4 71.9 60.8 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.5 11.5 13.3 111.5 67.1 54.7 2.9 6.2 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.1 22.4 15.9 103.3 63.1 53.0 10.8 16.6 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.9 9.5 11.1 117.9 69.0 58.1 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------