***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.6 11.6 96.1 62.0 51.5 3.0 5.4 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.7 7.8 11.3 110.3 66.9 54.2 2.6 4.6 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.1 9.1 11.9 97.6 62.3 52.3 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.0 11.3 15.0 107.9 66.2 55.0 3.4 6.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.7 9.0 14.3 102.3 64.0 53.8 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.2 12.3 15.5 115.7 68.2 56.0 3.9 7.1 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.5 7.3 10.5 105.1 65.1 53.0 2.2 4.5 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.2 15.2 16.1 110.1 66.3 54.1 6.3 10.1 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.8 8.0 14.8 102.6 63.7 54.1 2.5 4.9 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.1 9.3 15.8 104.6 64.3 54.1 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.4 9.0 14.3 107.1 65.5 54.3 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.7 12.2 14.5 111.5 67.0 53.8 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.4 12.6 15.6 113.7 67.5 54.8 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.0 11.1 16.1 104.5 64.7 55.9 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 13.8 15.1 117.7 69.5 56.3 2.5 6.1 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.8 10.0 14.6 110.9 66.8 54.8 3.1 5.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.7 8.9 10.7 108.5 66.5 53.7 2.4 4.9 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.2 8.1 16.1 101.2 63.1 54.0 2.7 5.2 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.8 8.1 11.7 109.5 66.5 54.4 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.0 11.0 21.2 110.4 66.0 54.7 3.7 6.8 11.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.7 8.6 13.0 96.0 61.6 52.4 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.9 8.8 11.8 110.6 67.0 54.4 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.6 6.7 12.5 104.9 64.9 54.2 2.2 4.2 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.3 9.5 14.7 100.4 63.1 54.4 3.2 6.2 10.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.6 13.5 96.6 61.9 51.7 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.7 12.1 15.6 119.9 69.7 57.0 3.1 6.3 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.7 12.2 95.8 61.6 51.1 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.7 10.7 14.9 113.9 68.2 56.0 2.8 5.6 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.6 14.3 17.1 101.6 63.1 54.0 5.0 9.5 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.6 8.2 11.4 106.4 65.5 53.4 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------