***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 28.8 26.8 42.6 96.5 54.2 50.4 16.5 24.6 34.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 27.3 26.7 38.8 100.0 57.2 51.8 15.6 23.0 31.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 37.5 33.5 41.9 94.1 52.4 48.7 21.6 32.0 44.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 28.2 40.1 50.6 93.1 51.4 47.7 28.5 39.2 51.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 43.9 36.4 46.3 88.7 47.2 44.8 28.1 38.2 49.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 25.1 33.9 46.8 92.4 50.1 46.5 26.2 33.7 42.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 26.3 26.0 38.2 100.9 57.8 52.2 15.3 22.3 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 47.2 58.1 51.1 89.9 47.1 44.9 49.1 59.9 71.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 22.3 30.2 47.4 90.6 48.8 46.3 22.4 30.8 40.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 29.6 37.4 49.9 88.7 45.9 44.6 30.5 39.8 49.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 24.1 33.0 46.8 90.9 48.6 45.6 25.3 33.6 43.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 27.6 38.1 46.6 91.8 49.3 46.0 29.3 38.3 48.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 29.2 38.4 47.9 90.4 47.7 44.9 30.2 39.6 50.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 30.2 39.3 51.8 90.8 48.2 45.4 30.6 40.4 51.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 40.3 40.3 52.3 102.0 59.2 52.7 19.4 31.8 47.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 22.6 30.9 46.1 90.6 48.4 45.1 23.7 31.6 40.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 30.1 29.8 38.0 101.7 58.4 52.1 17.2 25.2 34.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 25.6 31.3 50.6 85.6 43.0 42.7 25.8 35.4 46.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 30.9 29.2 39.8 98.5 56.0 50.8 18.2 26.2 35.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 30.6 37.6 64.7 87.0 44.4 43.2 30.7 41.0 52.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 37.1 31.8 44.9 91.6 50.2 47.4 21.8 31.6 43.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 29.6 28.9 40.2 100.6 57.6 51.7 17.2 24.9 34.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 16.5 26.0 42.2 95.8 53.6 49.0 17.1 24.2 32.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 43.7 36.8 47.9 88.7 46.7 45.0 29.5 38.6 48.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 40.1 33.9 48.2 92.9 51.0 48.2 22.3 33.2 46.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 24.2 33.4 48.1 92.8 50.1 46.7 25.4 33.2 42.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 34.1 31.1 45.0 96.4 53.9 50.2 19.3 28.7 39.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 20.3 34.7 49.5 96.5 54.2 48.9 21.2 31.6 44.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 68.4 56.4 54.4 85.1 42.6 42.2 49.8 62.0 75.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 28.5 27.7 39.8 99.5 56.8 51.5 16.1 24.0 33.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------