***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.5 4.7 3.7 -1.3 38.2 39.8 4.0 6.1 8.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.8 4.1 3.6 -1.3 38.8 40.3 3.4 5.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.4 4.7 3.8 -1.4 37.5 39.5 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -2.6 -1.3 2.0 -1.2 39.6 41.0 -2.2 0.0 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.7 4.7 2.2 -1.5 36.8 38.8 4.2 6.4 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.2 3.6 0.8 -2.1 30.4 34.0 3.9 5.8 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.4 3.7 3.6 -1.2 38.9 40.3 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -3.9 -3.5 1.1 -1.9 32.0 35.5 -3.4 -1.8 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.9 4.8 2.8 -1.6 36.0 38.3 4.4 6.7 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.8 4.5 1.8 -1.8 33.4 36.6 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.9 4.7 1.9 -1.7 34.7 37.3 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.6 4.2 1.7 -1.9 31.9 35.2 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.8 4.1 1.2 -2.1 29.7 33.4 4.6 6.6 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.6 4.3 2.8 -1.9 33.5 36.8 4.2 6.5 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.6 4.7 2.6 -0.8 42.6 43.5 3.4 5.7 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.5 5.0 1.6 -1.8 32.9 35.9 5.0 7.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.8 3.9 3.4 -1.2 38.8 40.4 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 3.0 3.7 1.4 -2.0 31.2 35.2 3.9 6.0 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.0 3.7 -1.4 38.1 40.0 3.2 5.5 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 -0.2 0.5 -0.5 -2.1 28.9 33.4 0.9 2.7 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.9 4.8 3.4 -1.5 37.4 39.3 4.2 6.5 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.1 4.1 3.5 -1.4 37.7 39.7 3.5 5.7 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.9 4.0 3.7 -1.5 36.7 39.0 3.5 5.7 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.5 4.4 2.7 -1.8 33.5 36.8 4.3 6.6 8.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.1 2.4 -1.3 37.9 39.6 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 4.0 4.3 1.1 -2.0 29.4 33.2 4.7 6.5 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.4 4.6 3.0 -1.4 37.4 39.1 4.0 6.2 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.5 4.9 2.3 -1.2 40.0 41.4 3.9 6.4 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 -0.5 0.1 0.6 -2.0 30.3 34.5 0.5 2.5 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.7 4.0 3.7 -1.3 38.5 40.1 3.3 5.5 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------