***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.1 6.5 0.2 52.2 51.0 4.9 6.9 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 6.5 6.3 6.6 0.3 53.7 52.8 3.8 5.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.4 6.7 6.6 0.1 50.9 50.0 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -2.5 0.1 4.4 0.2 51.8 50.8 -2.2 -0.1 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.1 6.5 4.7 -0.2 48.4 47.7 4.5 6.7 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.6 5.0 3.3 -0.6 43.5 44.5 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 6.1 5.9 6.5 0.3 53.8 52.7 3.4 5.5 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -4.3 -2.9 3.6 -0.6 43.1 43.9 -3.9 -2.2 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.6 5.4 -0.2 47.5 46.9 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.4 6.2 4.4 -0.5 44.9 45.0 4.7 6.8 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.2 6.5 4.4 -0.4 46.0 45.8 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.6 5.6 4.1 -0.6 43.4 44.1 4.3 6.4 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.0 5.9 3.7 -0.6 42.5 43.4 4.7 6.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 7.8 6.6 5.6 -0.3 46.8 46.7 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.5 4.8 0.5 55.1 53.9 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.6 4.1 -0.4 45.3 45.4 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 5.9 5.7 6.4 0.3 53.5 52.8 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.1 5.5 4.0 -0.6 43.7 44.0 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 6.6 6.3 6.7 0.3 52.7 52.0 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 0.4 1.6 1.9 -0.8 40.3 41.9 0.8 2.8 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.6 6.7 6.0 0.0 49.7 48.8 4.6 6.8 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 6.4 6.1 6.5 0.2 52.3 52.1 3.7 5.8 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 6.9 6.2 6.6 0.1 50.7 50.1 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.7 6.5 5.5 -0.3 46.5 46.2 4.7 6.9 9.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.1 5.0 0.2 51.9 50.7 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.9 5.5 3.5 -0.6 41.7 43.3 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.9 6.4 5.8 0.2 52.0 50.7 4.0 6.1 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.4 6.7 4.6 0.2 51.9 51.0 4.3 6.5 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.5 1.8 3.2 -0.6 43.2 43.8 0.4 2.7 4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.1 6.7 0.3 53.3 52.2 3.6 5.7 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------