***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9.7 9.3 8.2 0.3 53.0 52.0 6.5 8.8 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 8.6 8.2 8.3 0.3 53.5 52.6 5.3 7.7 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.3 8.5 0.3 52.8 51.9 6.4 8.9 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.3 2.6 6.2 0.2 51.8 50.9 0.0 2.3 4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.2 6.7 0.1 51.3 50.4 6.6 9.0 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.1 5.1 -0.1 48.7 48.2 6.0 8.2 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 8.2 7.9 8.1 0.3 53.3 52.3 5.1 7.4 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.5 -0.3 5.4 -0.2 48.2 48.0 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.6 7.3 0.1 51.4 50.5 7.0 9.5 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.3 6.3 0.0 49.6 49.1 7.0 9.4 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.5 6.4 0.0 50.2 49.5 7.0 9.4 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.7 8.6 6.1 -0.1 49.0 48.6 6.6 8.8 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.1 5.6 -0.1 48.7 48.3 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.6 9.7 7.5 0.1 50.5 50.1 7.0 9.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.4 6.4 0.2 51.9 51.3 5.7 8.1 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.9 9.8 6.0 0.0 49.7 49.0 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.5 8.0 0.3 52.8 52.0 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.1 5.8 -0.1 48.9 48.7 6.9 9.2 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.4 8.4 0.3 53.3 52.4 5.4 7.9 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.4 4.2 3.3 -0.4 46.1 46.4 2.7 4.6 6.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.1 9.5 7.9 0.2 52.3 51.3 6.8 9.2 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.4 8.2 0.3 52.7 52.0 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.0 8.5 0.3 52.7 51.9 6.1 8.6 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.5 7.3 0.1 50.5 50.0 7.0 9.4 11.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.4 6.6 0.2 51.8 50.8 5.8 8.2 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.7 8.7 5.3 -0.2 48.3 48.1 6.9 8.9 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 9.2 8.7 7.4 0.2 52.0 51.0 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.1 6.4 0.2 51.7 50.9 6.1 8.9 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.0 4.8 -0.2 48.2 48.2 3.1 5.2 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 8.6 8.2 8.4 0.4 53.5 52.5 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------