***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 7.4 6.3 5.5 -0.4 44.1 44.4 5.2 6.9 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 6.7 5.6 5.3 -0.5 43.6 44.2 4.4 6.2 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 7.6 6.3 5.5 -0.6 41.6 42.4 5.4 7.1 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 1.2 0.1 3.4 -0.5 43.8 44.2 -0.9 0.7 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.8 6.3 3.9 -0.7 41.2 42.0 5.5 7.1 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 4.4 5.3 2.7 -0.8 38.2 39.5 4.9 6.3 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 6.2 5.2 5.3 -0.4 44.3 44.7 4.0 5.8 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -2.8 -2.3 2.7 -1.2 33.6 35.5 -2.4 -1.3 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.6 4.5 -0.8 39.8 40.7 5.9 7.5 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.3 6.0 3.5 -1.1 35.3 36.8 5.8 7.4 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.4 6.4 3.7 -0.8 39.3 40.3 5.8 7.4 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 5.1 5.9 3.4 -0.9 36.7 38.3 5.6 7.0 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 5.3 6.3 3.2 -0.9 37.6 39.1 5.8 7.3 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.3 5.9 4.4 -1.3 33.2 35.2 5.9 7.7 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 6.8 6.2 4.2 -0.1 48.6 48.5 4.7 6.4 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 5.8 6.9 3.5 -0.7 40.1 41.0 6.2 7.7 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 6.3 5.0 5.0 -0.6 42.3 43.1 4.1 5.8 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 4.7 5.2 2.9 -1.3 31.4 33.5 5.3 6.8 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 6.8 5.5 5.4 -0.6 42.5 43.2 4.4 6.3 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 1.1 1.5 0.9 -1.5 28.2 30.5 1.9 3.2 4.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 7.9 6.5 5.1 -0.7 41.6 42.3 5.7 7.3 8.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 7.0 5.5 5.1 -0.7 40.7 41.7 4.6 6.4 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 7.3 5.6 5.4 -0.8 39.9 41.0 4.9 6.7 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.5 6.1 4.4 -1.2 34.4 36.1 6.0 7.6 9.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 6.7 5.6 4.0 -0.5 43.0 43.4 4.7 6.2 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 5.3 6.0 3.0 -0.8 37.6 39.0 5.7 7.0 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 7.1 6.0 4.8 -0.5 43.3 43.7 5.0 6.6 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.8 6.7 3.9 -0.4 45.4 45.7 5.3 7.1 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 1.3 1.7 2.1 -1.4 30.0 32.3 2.0 3.4 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 6.5 5.5 5.5 -0.5 44.0 44.5 4.3 6.1 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------