***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 7.2 9.2 15.9 162.0 80.7 72.7 1.7 3.3 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 6.4 7.7 14.1 154.9 79.1 71.5 1.6 3.1 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 7.6 11.1 17.2 173.5 83.3 74.8 1.5 3.3 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 13.6 20.2 20.9 198.6 87.7 82.3 3.2 6.1 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 12.2 18.4 21.1 197.1 87.9 82.6 2.9 5.3 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 10.6 17.5 22.0 219.3 89.9 84.6 2.5 4.7 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 6.8 7.9 13.3 146.3 77.1 70.0 1.5 3.1 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 16.7 24.5 23.1 190.8 86.8 81.7 4.8 8.4 13.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 7.4 11.2 20.3 184.8 86.4 79.9 1.9 3.4 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 9.4 13.9 22.1 185.8 86.6 80.8 2.6 4.6 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 10.1 15.1 20.2 193.8 87.0 81.6 2.5 4.6 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 9.2 14.1 21.1 196.8 87.2 82.2 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 11.1 17.4 22.6 207.0 88.9 84.3 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 11.0 17.5 22.3 191.0 86.9 80.3 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 11.5 20.3 21.8 225.5 89.2 84.0 1.8 4.0 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 8.7 12.9 20.9 203.3 88.2 83.3 2.4 4.2 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 7.9 8.7 12.7 137.3 74.7 66.7 1.6 3.5 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 10.0 15.0 23.8 186.1 86.6 81.1 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 7.7 9.8 15.5 163.4 81.0 73.2 1.6 3.4 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 10.3 15.0 28.6 186.8 86.2 82.0 2.4 4.6 7.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 7.3 11.2 18.8 181.9 85.3 77.7 1.9 3.5 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 7.2 8.4 14.3 147.6 77.3 68.9 2.1 3.8 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 8.4 12.4 17.9 175.6 83.7 76.0 1.3 3.1 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 11.3 17.4 21.7 188.6 86.5 79.8 2.7 5.1 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 8.4 12.0 20.1 181.5 85.1 79.1 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 9.9 16.2 24.3 216.2 89.7 85.3 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 9.3 11.8 17.4 162.0 81.2 74.0 2.5 4.6 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 8.4 13.2 21.0 213.9 88.8 83.2 2.0 3.7 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 14.8 20.9 25.2 184.5 86.2 81.3 4.3 7.5 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 5.5 7.2 14.7 159.0 80.1 72.1 1.3 2.6 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------