***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.8 3.9 7.7 63.2 44.0 39.5 2.3 5.0 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.4 3.9 6.7 62.4 44.1 36.9 2.2 5.1 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.9 5.6 8.0 62.7 43.3 38.7 3.5 7.3 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.7 7.8 8.5 60.7 43.5 39.2 5.3 9.6 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.8 8.9 10.2 75.0 49.5 44.8 4.6 9.1 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.1 9.0 12.2 82.4 53.4 46.5 5.0 8.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.2 3.6 6.8 64.8 44.4 37.3 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.6 15.1 12.3 79.5 51.4 45.6 9.1 14.5 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 10.1 7.8 11.0 77.7 49.9 45.4 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 13.4 11.2 12.5 81.2 51.8 46.7 5.5 10.5 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.4 8.6 10.3 79.4 51.9 46.3 4.0 8.0 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.6 8.7 10.7 80.1 52.3 45.8 4.1 8.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.2 9.9 11.3 81.7 53.0 47.0 4.8 9.0 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.7 8.4 10.9 68.5 45.5 41.3 5.1 9.7 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.2 7.3 51.2 40.7 35.8 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.3 7.2 10.1 76.8 50.9 45.2 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.2 3.6 6.2 61.8 44.6 36.6 2.1 4.3 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.7 8.5 13.8 78.5 50.1 45.4 4.7 8.5 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.7 4.3 6.9 60.7 43.1 36.7 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.9 7.1 14.3 67.2 44.7 40.7 4.6 8.5 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.8 6.0 9.0 67.0 44.0 40.3 3.7 7.6 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.2 4.7 6.5 61.2 43.4 36.1 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.7 4.0 7.7 60.4 41.9 37.1 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.2 7.8 11.4 72.1 47.1 42.7 4.4 8.5 14.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.3 6.1 9.3 65.5 43.8 40.0 3.5 7.8 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.0 6.1 10.8 78.4 50.9 44.1 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.8 5.5 8.8 66.1 44.7 40.0 3.3 6.7 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.1 6.4 8.4 60.7 44.6 39.3 3.8 7.9 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 18.8 15.1 14.3 73.7 47.7 43.4 10.1 15.9 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.7 4.4 7.0 62.5 43.1 36.9 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------